17/06/2026
Oil Market Summary — June 17, 2026
CRUDE OIL futures traded near three-month lows below $80/b Wednesday after four straight down sessions, pressured by expected supply from the anticipated US-Iran deal due to be signed Friday in Switzerland, which grants Tehran incentives including the immediate resumption of oil exports. June 16 settlements hit fresh three-month lows — NYMEX July WTI down $4.70 at $76.05/b and ICE August Brent down $4.21 at $78.96/b — with Brent touching $78.5/b intraday, within $8/b of pre-war levels. Dated Brent fell $7 to $81/b. Backwardation collapsed to Feb. 27 levels, M1/M2 narrowing to 48 cents/b and the Brent/Dubai spread to a postwar-low $6.70/b. Sixteen ships transited Hormuz June 15, the most since June 8. Analysts caution full normalization could take months given mines, about 600 tankers stuck in the Gulf and insurance costs; Morgan Stanley and Goldman cut Q4 Brent forecasts by $10-plus/b, and BNP's Spanjer sees $70/b possible. US crude inventories fell 8.3 million barrels last week.
ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session
GASOLINE: The Asian complex was rangebound June 16 as participants cautiously watched Middle East developments after a virtual US-Iran MOU was signed June 15. Paper softened, mainly on margin-locking sales. The 92 RON swaps crack versus Brent firmed slightly to $18.55/b and the physical crack to $22.55/b.
NAPHTHA market weakened June 16 after the virtual MOU, the H1-H2 August physical time spread flipping to a 50 cents/mt discount, down $2.75 day on day. The July-August MOPJ swaps spread held at $3.50/mt. China likely issued a second naphtha import-quota batch of about 9.9 million mt, 17.5% below last year.
JET FUEL/KEROSENE Sentiment softened June 16 on the virtual peace deal. The balance-month regrade spread sank to minus $1.25/b from plus 91 cents/b, and the July-August swaps spread narrowed to plus $1.41/b. The cash differential slipped 75 cents to plus $1.24/b. Indonesia's Pertamina sought four 200,000-b cargoes. MRPL's latest jet sale at a sub-$1/b discount, versus a $12-$13/b premium in April.
GASOIL Sentiment weakened June 16, with participants expecting premiums to fall to prewar levels. The July-August swaps spread eased to $1.77/b, the lowest since the war began, and the FOB Singapore 10 ppm cash differential fell 24 cents to $2.31/b. GS Caltex sold 300,000 b for July loading, while Malaysia's April gasoil output fell 58.86% on the month.
FUEL OIL HSFO structure weakened June 16 as the 380 CST M1-M2 spread narrowed 54% to $3.50/mt, the tightest backwardation since Feb. 27. The 380 CST cash differential dropped sharply to plus $12.75/mt from $27.26/mt, a March-low premium. LSFO also weakened, the marine-fuel premium easing to $25.75/mt in a sixth straight decline.