16/04/2026
Stop building gas power plants in Nigeria. The data no longer supports it.
Here’s a simple comparison between building new gas plants and deploying decentralized solar mini-grids for commercial power.
The Gas Plant Model (1 GW estimate) -
Cost: ~$1 billion (₦1.36 trillion; under stated by the way)
Typical operational efficiency: ~50% (often lower)
Distribution efficiency after transmission losses: 70–80%
Effective end-user efficiency: ~40% or less
Payback period without subsidy: Indefinite / rarely achieved
Maintenance & opex: High, FX-dependent
The Decentralized Mini-Grid Model (same ₦1.36 trillion)
What you can build: 272,000 mini-grids (5–6 kW each)
Shops powered: ~4 million (15 shops per grid)
Distribution efficiency: 80–90% (no transmission losses)
Operational cost per site: very minimal
Revenue potential per shop: extremely affordable compared to fuel.
Projected payback (no subsidy): 3-7years (real-world)
Why this matters
New gas plants lock Nigeria into high capex, high opex, and grid dependency. Meanwhile, mini-grids already work commercially - without subsidy, without waiting for transmission infrastructure, and without foreign exchange exposure for fuel.
The 2023 Electricity Act enables regional and off-grid distribution. We don’t need new policies. We need to stop funding the past and scale what actually delivers.
The bottom line
Providing reliable electricity to Nigerians is not a technical problem. It’s a choice between old habits and better data.
The data is clear. Choose wisely.