09/09/2014
Future Of Air Travel - Sustainable Flying and how SkyFunder can help!
A few weeks ago I had the pleasure of listening to one of the top futurist in the country Tom Frey. He only touched on this subject briefly, so I decided to do my own research and this is what I found out about the future of aviation.
With all the advances in automotive engines and the lack of any real innovation in aircraft engines, aviation is the fastest growing cause of emissions. Flying causes 3.5% of global CO2 emissions, and this could jump to more than 12% by 2050 unless action is taken(not a big concern for me since I will be 92 - but for my grand kids it will). Emissions from flying doubled from 1990 to 2004, will and aviation is now the fastest growing cause of global warming(if you believe all the climate change hype). But, most governments don't fund these types of projects, so the aviation industry is forced to pay 100% of the developments. Whereas the automotive industry get millions to develop more efferent engines.
Planes also affect the earth in other ways: satellites show that clouds from a single jet can reduce sunshine over an area of 20,000 square miles a few minutes at a time. Soot and water v***r from aviation triggers more cloud formation, and on busy flight paths, sunlight can be cut by 8% - globally around about 0.74%. Clouds reflect light back into space but also insulate the earth and the net effect is warming – equal perhaps to an additional 1% of global CO2 emissions.
We also need to add an amount for aviation industry energy use in building and maintaining airport runways and passenger terminals, compared to motorways and urban roads. But this only adds a few fractions to the CO2 emissions.
As I've stated before, it is hard to get funding for these types of projects with the government. This is why SkyFunder.com for formed - to help innovators develop these types of engines.
Increasing Fuel Efficiency
The aviation industry is under pressure to reduce carbon use, mainly because up to 40% of their costs is buying jet fuel, even though aviation fuel taxed. Now of the tax money is used to develop more efferent engines. The government just take the taxs and leave the aviation industry to fend for themselves.
But, in most cases and without any real government help, expect airline efficiency to improve every year by 1.5% across the industry until 2020, and carbon-neutral growth after that. New planes are 70% more efficient than 40 years ago and 20% better than 10 years ago. Expect further 25% energy saving by 2025 for new planes – less than .80 gallons of fuel per passenger per 62 miles flown, which is less than a small car in 2010.
One challenge in improving efficiency of planes is the very long service life of aircraft. Many planes flying today are already 30 years old, and most new planes sold in 2010 will still be flying in 2040. Airbus expects to deliver 25,000 new aircraft worth $3.1 trillion over the next 20 years – but this will still only be a small fraction of the global total. Planes sold from 2010-20 may only contribute 1% of aircraft miles flown by 2020 .
Replacing old planes is certainly an effective strategy for some individual airline. Alaska Airlines will save 18% of fuel by replacing MD-80 planes with 737-800s. But what happens to the old planes? Aviation history shows they usually land up being sold to less wealthy airlines in emerging nations – so continuing their inefficient working lives - but many an airline has started this way and it keeps the airlines more competitive. So what can be done about these older planes? Fuel use in aviation can easily be reduced by adding pointed wing tips to improve air flow, saving from 7% in Learjets to 3.5% in Jumbos (Boeing 747s). Some can also be fitted with better engines, but this comes at a high costs.
Expect fuel economy also to be improved by:
• Fuller plane occupancy – almost all weight in a large plane is the plane itself plus fuel, so the cost of extra passengers is marginal. An empty 747-400 weighs around 340,000 pounds, or 800,000 when fully loaded on take-off – but only 250,000 of those extra pounds is actual passengers or cargo. Almost all the rest is jet fuel.
• Better air traffic control, including more direct air routes which can reduce aviation emissions by up to 18% on short-haul flights, especially into congested airports like JFK. The US is upgrading their entire air traffic systems to save energy.
• Flying more slowly – best with larger, narrow aircraft wings. Every aircraft design is a compromise, with wings optimized for the speed that the aircraft is expected to fly at, most of the time.
• Steeper landing paths – the more time the plane spends at higher altitudes, where air is thinner, the less air resistance and less aviation fuel used.
• Increased use of turboprop aircraft for shorter distances (better fuel use, partly as planes optimized to spend more time flying at slower speed).
These are a few of the possible ways to improve traveling by air. Even if you think the global warming is just fairyland - which in some cases I have to agree. You can;t disregard the cost saving in fuel and a better bottom line for any airline.
