United States Tropic-Watcher

07/02/2024

Earlier darkness came upon Hurricane Beryl. This is probably the last look of the storm looking this strong. Later tonight and into tomorrow Caribbean wind shear will start to weaken the storm. The wind shear is typical in the Caribbean for this time a year. This is the strongest storm on record for the month of June. Currently Hurricane hunters are flying into the storm and just found an extrapolated pressure of 934 in the center. That’s approximately a 24 millibar drop from the 8am update this morning. It’ll be interesting to see if Beryl breaks the July record of 929 before it starts to weaken. This has been a mighty powerful and historic storm.

06/30/2024

Woah!!! Hurricane Beryl is looking quite gnarly this morning. Beryl will head towards the Leeward Islands by tomorrow. However the winds are 115mph currently and the storm still has 24-36 hours before it makes it to the islands. Who would’ve thought we would have a borderline Cat 4 hurricane at the end of June. You would typically see this in September.

06/29/2024

Long time no post! Tropics are heating up, long season ahead of us and we are only in June.

06/01/2024

Today is the official start of the 2024 hurricane season.

05/23/2024

Another active hurricane season is upon us.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. La Nina is expected alongside warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, according to NOAA. These are major drivers of tropical activity.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30, and NOAA's outlook predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

To read the full report, click here: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0VQ0IBbI05PUw9VLwKDj8STLAOyHxlJWdyOkaESn1tCpwVxK2s67gEXek_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw

04/04/2024

Hey all! It’s been a while!!! Colorado State University has issued its first forecast for the 2024 season. It’s going to be an active one…

09/07/2023

Hurricane Lee has rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105mph this morning. Lee is forecasted to get to a category 5 with winds of 160mph by tomorrow night.

09/02/2023

Here we go again. This one will have to be closely monitored.

09/01/2023

As we get into September, models are picking up more tropical activity coming off of Africa.

08/30/2023

Hurricane Idalia is currently on gate way to hitting the big bend of Florida. Current landfall intensity will be 115mph. However I wouldn’t be shocked if it were to get up to almost a cat 4.

08/27/2023

Tropical Storm Idalia has formed.

08/26/2023

Tropical trouble brewing in the Gulf of Mexico? Sure enough!

All eyes on “Invest 93L” which currently looks like a tropical depression or storm. 94L which will likely be named Idalia by tonight has a high ceiling in its future. Although it doesn’t have much time over water (expected to make landfall sometime Tuesday evening) it has quite favorable conditions. 94L is currently exceeding model expectations by avoiding land on the Yucatán Peninsula and getting an early head start on development. Today, hurricane models are predicting a cat 3-4 hurricane making landfall in Florida this week. I’m a divided over the strength (for now) it will likely have to deal with a little wind shear but the earlier it gets it’s act together the more it’ll be able to find against the wind shear. If you know anyone along the coast in the orange circle below be sure they are aware that a strong hurricane is possible this week.