06/06/2026
6/6/26 - If all pans out as forecast today, it could be a fun day for active weather across Western Washington. Before you get too excited though, remember that it IS Western Washington, and not everything is a guarantee. Several questions still remain.
A cool and unstable air mass is aimed directly at the western side of the state. This is the key ingredient for our isolated t-storm chances. If we can get sufficient cloud breaks and warm up the surface just enough, then any showers moving on the coast can tap into this energy. The NAM 3 km model in diagram two shows this happening in the South Sound between 12-4 PM this afternoon. Unfortunately, that solution doesn't agree with other high-res models, which skip most of the Puget Sound entirely. Looks like another nowcast situation, but this comes as no surprise.
The National Weather Service's "National Blend of Models," as shown in diagram three, highlights a good chunk of Seattle southward in a 40%+ risk of thunderstorms from 5 AM today to 5 AM tomorrow. The NWS posted in their morning forecast discussion that this solution is generously high. Realistically, we're looking at 25-30% probabilities for Seattle south and 10-20% elsewhere west of the Cascades. Dynamics are forecast to be the best for t-storms in the southwest interior nonetheless.
What conclusion can we draw? This'll once again be another garden variety setup for Spring-time thunderstorms across Western Washington. That means the "hit-or-miss" and "popcorn" variety showers. You may be lucky enough to see a thunderstorm today, but a LOT of other people will end the day empty-handed. Don't be disappointed if you think this forecast is a bust. It always happens this way and always will.
TL;DR Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon across Western Washington. The best chances will be south of Seattle along the I-5 corridor. Heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and lightning all possible hazards. Uncertainty is high regarding who gets thunder and who doesn't.
