01/24/2026
Don’t hesitate give us a call today (845)913-5298
🚨🚨Storm Mode🚨🚨
🚨🚨 Storm Update #7 🚨🚨
Synopsis-
Storm is now 48 hours out and confidence remains high. First look forecast is still a active from yesterday, our preliminary forecast will be released by this evening. In the prelim we will hone down forecast ranges, try to define higher impact zones, and address potential nuances that can impact the forecast.
- Start Time: 6am - 12pm Sunday 🕕
- End Time: 3am - 12pm Monday 🕚
- Extreme Cold and Dangerous Wind-Chills 🥶
- Dangerous to impossible travel 🚙
- Snowfall Rates 1-2”+ per hour 📈
- Low visibility 🌫️
- Snowfall accumulations 10” to 18"+ (Localized amounts 20”) 📏
- Long duration event 24+ hours ⏳
🤓Nerd Digest🤓
Well.. we started discussing this storm almost a week ago, which if you’ve followed for awhile you know we only do when we have above normal confidence that the pattern and the signal match. In this case they did, we’ve rode together through all of the up’s and down of long range forecasting. Watched as pieces of energy from the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and the furthest parts of NW Canada have started to come together to form the beginning stages of our winter storm.
Now the chess pieces are finally on the board, sampling of these pieces are now being captured my weather balloon launches and ground observations the medium/long range models have joined hands in the general evolution of this eventual cyclone.
Now the work begins!! In the world of forecasting your are constantly honing the forecast to be as sharp and pointed as possible. This level of honing can not be achieved by the tools we’ve been using thus far, and yall can’t plan around general ideas. So we now switch to watching the systems behavior upstream from us and switching to short range models with higher resolution. These models aren’t perfect, also have their biases and blind spots that we need to remain aware of, but they capture more of the important details, some of which are critical when forecasting for our region. We are aware of the wild cards, been discussing the internally over the last few days, now we wait for model confirmation.
So where are we at?
Several things that will define the forecast for many backyards and lead to some range in the forecasted impacts.
Wildcards we will try to begin to address over the next 24 hours.
1️⃣- Mesoscale banding, for the long time followers, yall know this is always top of the list! Where these bands set up, remain stationary or pivot will see the maximum snow totals. 18”-24” isn’t off the table if our region becomes the focus of these bands. These often are never nailed down, and are Now-Casted.
2️⃣- The final track and position of the coastal low, as this will determine how far north we need a warm nose aloft that can impact precipitation types, a period of sleet in southern Westchester and Rockland can’t be ruled out, even with surface temps in the 20’s. This would keep totals on lower end of the scale 8”-14”, how far north this can reach is unknown at this time frame. The NAM model is still at the far end of its best accuracy window but has begun to sniff this potential. With that said, NAM also has a tendency to over forecast mid level warmth at this range.
3️⃣- Dry Slotting will need to be monitored, whenever you have a transfer of energy to a coastal low, you need to be aware of a dry slot punching in from the SW. This can reduce snowfall rates, lull precipitation, eat away at snow flake growth and lead to weak dendrites and inefficient accumulations , again the lower Hudson Valley is at highest risk for this.
4️⃣- Downsloping off the Berkshires and Taconics, as the coastal low takes over, upper level winds will shift to easterly, as the winds are forced up Andover the terrain a shadow effect is possible across eastern Columbia and Dutchess. The signature isn’t strong, but could slight reduce totals in those locations. On the flip side, upslope on the eastern facing slopes of the higher terrain will lead to snowfall maximum across the eastern Catskills.
So you thought forecasting was easy? This is what makes forecasting in this region so amazing, one of the more complex regions to forecast for in the country. In closing first look forecast remains unchanged and we will double click down further in our prelim. Continue to prepare for a impactful winter storm across the region.
