Moneyball Austin

03/11/2026

What Traders Need To Know For Midterm Elections.

03/11/2026

🇺🇸🗳️ Midterm Elections Day Notes:
U.S. Midterm Elections are taking place today. Current prediction markets are pricing in a 95% chance of Democrats taking control of the House, a 78% chance of taking the Senate, and a 77% chance of sweeping both chambers.

Potential Political Implications: If Republicans lose control of Congress, Trump's ability to push legislation through will likely become more limited without both parties agreeing. Trump will most likely go down the impeachment route, similar to what happened during his previous administration. Political gridlock could make it more difficult to pass legislation and lead to future government shutdowns.

Potential Market Implications: Historically, U.S. stock and bond markets have largely shrugged off government shutdowns, with minimal long-term disruption. The Dollar, however, has historically experienced some initial weakness during these periods, which could create additional downside pressure on the DXY.

Manage risk, and enjoy the show 🫡

02/11/2026

During my 13-hour flight, I watched a movie called "Pressure", it's about the Allies' preparations for the D-Day invasion. One of their biggest challenges wasn't military strategy, but forecasting the weather.

Two meteorologists were tasked with giving the generals a simple answer: Go or no-go?

The problem was that they disagreed.

One relied on historical data, arguing that similar conditions over the previous 50 years had always produced clear weather, so that means it will be clear, guaranteed. The other believed broader weather patterns suggested a major storm was approaching and questioned whether anyone could guarantee the weather 3 days in advance, and whether five historical occurrences were enough to confidently predict the outcome.

The generals preferred the clear-weather forecast because it supported their plans. But the general ultimately considered the alternative forecast and delayed the invasion by 24 hours.

It turned out to be a great decision because not only was there a massive storm that would have compromised the mission, but the Allies also won the war.

So, what does this have to do with trading?

I think there's an important lesson here.

Most retail trading strategies revolve around indicators and identifying chart patterns that have worked historically. But in an incredibly competitive and efficient market, does recognizing a handful of historical patterns actually provide a meaningful edge?

Just because something has worked in the past doesn't mean you understand **WHY it works, under what conditions it works, or when those conditions are no longer present.**

The same distinction applies to trading. You can spend years studying indicators and chart patterns, but if you aren't considering the broader market environment, positioning, sentiment, fundamentals, and the forces influencing price, you may be missing important pieces of the puzzle.

The goal isn't to find another indicator or a better-looking chart pattern. It's to develop a broader understanding of the market that gives you a genuine reason to believe your trade has an edge.

02/11/2026

10 Tricks To Win At Trading That almost Traders Dont Realize.

02/11/2026

📰📊Trading News For The Week:

MONDAY:
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- AUD Bank Rates + Press Conference
- Apple Earnings

TUESDAY:
- US Mid-Term Elections
- US JOLTS Jobs
- NZD Unemployment
- AMD Earnings

Wednesday:
- US ISM Services

Thursday:
- GBP Bank Rates + Press Conference

FRIDAY:
- US NFP Jobs Data
- US Consumer + Sentiment Expectation
- CAD Unemployment

30/10/2026

Trading Movie Story Time Understanding Trading Edge and What You Might Be Missing.

30/10/2026

Most traders manage their trades NOT based on what's optimal, but rather on their emotions.

One trader I work with came to me stuck. Good system, terrible ex*****on. Moving stops, cutting winners early.

I gave him one rule for our next 6 weeks together:

Use ONLY this setup that has an edge. Once you're in, don't touch it.

Stop loss OR take profit. Walk away.

Result? 11% in a month and a half. 61.5% win rate. No emotions.

Is this optimal for trading system?

No, not at all, but it might be optimal for the individual trader right now, based on the individual trader's current state/level.

I just broke down exactly why this works (and when to break the rule) in this 4-minute video:

Most struggling traders don't have a strategy problem — they have a...

29/10/2026

Google Stock Looking Interesting 👀
- After Googles disappointing earnings, the stocks down -28% from it's high. Google is one of the top dogs, but generates the largest share (around 56% to 57% of total revenue) through keyword-targeted ads and sponsored search results on Google, Gmail, and Google Maps. This relies on businesses spending money. Google also had it's 2nd quarter in a row of negative cash flow.

- Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 2.12 (exp. 3.03), Rev. 127.6bln (exp. 127.91bln), Oper. income 40.58bln (exp. 43.16bln), Google Services rev. 96.30bln (exp. 98.4bln), Google Cloud rev. 30.71bln (exp. 29.1bln), Google Search & other rev. 63.35bln (exp. 64.85bln).

- With that said, Price is pulling back into a level of weekly/monthly demand level. Not a bad value pick up is you like google. Longs valis.

28/10/2026

News For The Day:
- GBP Annual Budget Release
- CAD Bank Rates (Expected To Raise .25Bps to 2.50%)
- USD Fed Rates (Expected To Keep Rates The Same At 4%, With Press Conference Held 30 Minutes After The Release)
- Earnings From Alphabet and Microsoft After The Closing Bell

Note:
Major news coming out today so be sure to manage risk and remember that sitting in cash is a position.

28/10/2026

NZD Analysis :

Technicals:
- Previous overextended market now sideways with daily demand created
- Price also reacting off of major 3x year support.

Fundamentals/Sentiment:
- RBZ surprised investors by keeping rates the same at 2.75% instead of raising them to 3%
- COT positioning sitting at MAX short, anticipating taking profits.

Overall:
- Picked up a long trade on the NZD, but also considering adding to the position by watching the lower timeframe, like the 1-hour TF for buy confirmation.