30/10/2025
Tenemos el agrado de invitarlos al próximo coloquio del Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE). El mismo se llevará a cabo el lunes 3/11 a las 14 hs en formato virtual únicamente.
Los esperamos!
Statistics from Systems Science of Land Planets: New Rules of Thumb for Uncertainty in Habitability Metrics
Dra. Nancy Y. Kiang *
Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), Columbia University, Nueva York
Resumen:
A systems science understanding planetary climates using 3D general circulation models (GCMs) relies on numerous planetary parameters, only a few of which may be observed by current and upcoming telescope technologies. How do the unknown parameters affect uncertainty in key quantities for constraining planetary habitability? I present statistics of a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of Earth-size idealized all-land planets with flat topography, simulated with the NASA ROCKE-3D GCM. A Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) scheme was used to sample from 10 variables to generate a 110-member ensemble varying: stellar temperature, irradiance (hence orbital period), rotation period, obliquity, surface pressure, N2-CO2 atmospheres, surface albedo, surface roughness, soil texture, and initial water content. Generalized additive models were fit to identify non-linear relations between these parameters and prediction of planetary Bond albedo and surface temperature. A suite of multivariate statistical models are presented at different levels of inclusion of all the parameters and select interaction terms, or including only parameters likely to be observed, the stellar type and flux, with uncertainties due to the remaining parameters. The water phase budgets of the planets demonstrate a diversity of climatologies, including persistent liquid water on some synchronously rotating planets; temperature transitions from mostly frozen, to temperate, to steam planets; and longest water lifetimes for planets around hotter stars. This ensemble provides a demonstration of concept to quantify uncertainty for telescope searches for habitable exoplanets.
Link a Google Meet: https://meet.google.com/fky-yzvz-doj
