30/07/2026
India's 1.7mn t urea tender is officially out—and geopolitics is tightening the screws.
The market's anticipation finally became reality yesterday, as RCF launched its largest urea buy tender of the year. But the real story is the perfect storm of demand and disruption converging right now.
🔹 India's Buying Spree: 1.7 million tonnes sought, split between west and east coasts, with loading deadlines by 24 September. All eyes are on China and the Russian Baltic as the likely primary suppliers—but will Chinese export quotas allow enough flow?
🔹 Geopolitical Risk Intensifies: Iran's surprise attack on US bases in the Middle East pushed Brent crude to $90.78/bl. While US forces intercepted all missiles, the psychological impact on shipping and supply chain security is immediate and real.
🔹 Market Divergence: US Nola urea jumped another $9/st to $435-438/st. Brazil firmed to $465-500/t CFR. But European markets? Still under pressure, weighed down by affordability and stubbornly high North African FOBs.
🔹 Egyptian Disruptions: An explosion at Damietta LNG port added a layer of uncertainty, though operations are reportedly under control. Egyptian urea prices eased to $510-530/t FOB, with little fresh business reported.
One thing is increasingly clear: Supply security is no longer about price—it's about access. The combination of surging demand from India, escalating Middle East tensions, and tightening Chinese export controls is creating a market where agility and relationships matter more than ever.
👇 Reach out to me if you are sourcing urea.
Hanna Zhan
📱 WhatsApp/WeChat: +86 18865422365
📧 Email: [email protected]
