08/05/2026
๐ Urea market extends losses amid demand vacuum โ but watch for triggers
Urea prices are under heavy pressure globally, with the post-India-tender hangover dragging values down across the board.
๐ป West of Suez saw the steepest drops โ US Nola barges slid to 557โ632/st,and Brazil CFR fell to 700โ730/t. Lack of buying interest and mounting May-loading tonnage from Algeria, Nigeria, the Black Sea and Oman are driving the slide.
๐ East of Suez remains relatively supported by India and Australia, but granular urea still dipped to $750โ820/t FOB Middle East.
Australiaโs local prices are among the highest globally, offering some insulation.
Egypt shocked the market with a $90/t export duty on all nitrogen fertilizers (urea, nitrates, AS) for three months from 5 May. Who absorbs the cost? Still unclear.
๐ Strait of Hormuz remains closed to urea vessels despite US-Iran talks. Any reopening would add further downside, but continued closure + an Indian tender could reverse the trend.
India likely to issue a new urea tender this month. April production was ~2.1mn t, with stocks at ~7.4mn t โ suggesting room for imports.
China still absent from urea exports. Domestic summer top-dressing is ending, stocks building slowly.
๐ 30-60 day outlook: More downside expected, especially if Hormuz reopens. A sharp rebound possible only if the Strait stays closed and Chinese exports remain absent.
The market is structurally short but sentiment is bearish. All eyes on Hormuz, India, and Egypt's duty impact.
Hanna Zhang
๐ฑ WhatsApp/WeChat: +86 18865422365
๐ง Email: [email protected]
