10/10/2026
The matter of India's tender driving prices down should be taken seriously, but we must not be led astray by it.👀
The underlying logic of granular urea is not that pessimistic. Currently, IPL's East Coast CFR is $352.1, and the West Coast is $356.25, which converts to about $320 FOB China. Although this is the lowest price since September 2024, it is only the India tender price.
⚡️During the same period, Brazil CFR is $455-470, and Egypt FOB is $464. The regional price spread is very large. Second, Middle East supply is decreasing. If the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, granular urea supply and demand will tighten in the coming months.
⛓️Europe is reducing synthetic ammonia production, fourth-quarter demand is relatively good, and Chinese granular urea Ex Works orders have already been scheduled to before the end of November. Sellers are not showing collapse-style shipment pressure.
Let us also look at whether the Indian tender can be concluded. The West Coast has already locked in 350,000 tons of Chinese and Russian cargo, and the East Coast has locked in 60,000 tons of Chinese cargo. The Validity runs until 3 p.m. today. If China does not accept, this low-priced tender may not be realized, and market sentiment may be revised again.
🌎Let us also combine this with Brazil's urea imports from January to September: total imports were 3.53 million tons, down 22% year on year. Urea, ammonium sulfate, and Nitrogen fertilizer fell 21% in the season, but this only reflects weak transactions before the fourth quarter; it does not mean that global Granule supply and demand have loosened.
🧐Therefore, we must view the Indian tender rationally and not treat the India tender price as the global pricing. The Indian tender may set a price floor for the fourth quarter, but it is not a ceiling, and even less a signal of collapse. What deserves more attention is China's supply situation.
Buy urea with Faith, source with ease.
Faith Zhang
MP/WhatsApp: 8613953253650
Email: [email protected]
