02/07/2026
OIL MARKET SUMMARY — 02 Jul 2026
CRUDE Brent extended its fall— Brent crude (~$71/b) and WTI crude (~68/b) hitting the lowest since late February. The quarter closed as the steepest decline in six years: down ~27% over the month and ~30% across Q2. The driver is rapid Gulf normalization — Hormuz transits doubled to 882 in June (from 428), crude flows topped 10M b/d, Iranian exports cleared 40M bbl post-blockade, UAE returned to pre-war levels, and record Russian shipments built up seaborne inventories. Offsetting: US commercial stocks −3.77M to 40.8M bbl (lowest since Sept 2018), SPR at a 1983 low, Iraq's Halfaya back to 350k b/d, Fujairah product stocks +17%. momentum is bearish on supply return, but the move is stretched. Analysts peg 2H Brent at $70–85 if the ceasefire holds and don't see prewar lows — repairs, gradual tanker normalization and inventory rebuilds provide a floor. Iran still insists on Hormuz administrative control, keeping two-way geopolitical risk live. Sell rallies, but chasing lows is risky.
ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session
GASOLINE Complex softened July 1. FOB Singapore 92 RON crack vs Brent swaps collapsed to $18.00–18.05/b (from $21.75); physical crack $26.45–26.50/b. Regional balance steady, ample supply, firm SE Asia demand. June crack averaged $23.68/b (−4.29% MoM); MOC volumes −11.43% to 1.55M bbl; Fujairah light distillates −14% to a record low. bearish crack, well-supplied — no urgency to buy.
NAPHTHA Firmest complex. MOPJ July–Aug swap spread rose to $15.50/mt (from $14.25); AMEC bought at a +$2–3/mt premium, flipping from a prior discount. CFR Japan MOC volumes +225% MoM to 325kt (BP, Glencore top buyers). Haldia pipeline fire didn't disrupt runs. demand-led strength, widening spread supports a long bias.
JET/KEROSENE Structure strengthening, tracking ICE gasoil — July–Aug swap spread +$1.79/b (from +$1.62), cash diff +$1.26/b (+12¢). But supply is long: barrels trapped in Asia, Europe in glut, Korea exporting at pre-war levels. MOC trades rose to 200k bbl. firm paper fighting oversupply — fragile, watch demand.
GASOIL Mixed. Paper backwardation widened to $2.10/b (from $1.95) on Hormuz uncertainty, but physical soft — cash diff $1.18/b (−9¢, second daily drop). China likely to lift export curbs (~200kt more) = bearish. June cash diff averaged $2.69/b vs $5.76 in May, $30.04 in April — a hard normalization. MOC volumes −35.79% MoM. soft physical, incoming Chinese supply skews bearish.
FUEL OIL LSFO cash premium rose to $20.79/mt on firmer bids, though structure inched down (backwardation $22.50/mt); arb arrivals set to rise ~700kt in July but finished-grade supply stays tight into H1 July. HSFO cash diff fell to $5.22/mt (from $6.92) and the M1-M2 spread flipped to backwardation from contango — yet HSFO physical trades surged to 840kt, a 2026 high. LSFO cash firm but softening; HSFO cooling
after its run-up.