SMG Group, Hamriyah Freezone Sharjah, Delhi (2026)

22/05/2026

May 22, 2026 - Oil Market Summary
CRUDE OIL Markets were whipsawed by conflicting signals on the US-Iran peace process. WTI settled $1.91/b lower at $96.35/b and Brent fell $2.44/b to $102.58/b on May 21, after Saudi media reported a final draft agreement covering cessation of hostilities and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — notably excluding Iran's nuclear program. By May 22, however, prices rebounded, with WTI climbing to $97.55/b and Brent crossing $104/b, as Iran's Supreme Leader ordered enriched uranium stockpiles to remain in-country and Iran-Oman talks on a Hormuz toll system drew a firm rejection from President Trump. Despite the Friday bounce, Brent remained down over 4% for the week and WTI headed for a weekly loss exceeding 7%. Strait transits improved to 15 vessels on May 20 versus 7 the prior day, though shipowners remain reluctant to fully return until hostilities resolve.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session
GASOLINE cracks softened midafternoon May 21, tracking the narrower US RBOB-Brent crack. The FOB Singapore 92 RON swaps crack narrowed to $23.50–$23.55/b from $25.56/b the previous close. US gasoline inventories fell for a 14th consecutive week to 214.2 million barrels, while exports dropped to 825,000 b/d. Indonesia's 90–97 RON gasoline imports rose 20% month over month in March.

NAPHTHA derivatives market eased, with the June–July MOPJ swaps spread narrowing $7/mt to $34/mt. A supply overhang persisted, with arbitrage cargoes booked in April arriving in June and South Korean domestic production remaining adequate. India's BPCL sold 36,000 mt for June loading. Indonesia's naphtha imports rose sharply year over year.

JET FUEL/KEROSENE eased on US-Iran peace hopes, with the June/July FOB Singapore swaps spread narrowing to $7.30/b. Persian Gulf cargoes inside the Strait of Hormuz continued trading at steep discounts of around $34/b to MOPAG, with FOB-basis discounts estimated at $22–$35/b when factoring freight, demurrage and war risk. Demurrage ran at $250,000/day. Dubai airport demand was described as stable with a slight ramp-up.

GASOIL weakened for a third straight session, with the June–July Singapore swaps spread narrowing to $7.20/b. Supply continued to outpace demand. Middle East Hormuz cargoes traded at around a $50/b discount to MOPAG. Indonesia's Q1 gasoil imports rose 4% year over year. US diesel demand fell sharply to 3.55 million b/d, while Marathon Petroleum began planned maintenance at its Carson.

FUEL OIL LSFO differentials cooled for a second straight session despite tight on-spec supply, with the Singapore 0.5%S June–July swaps spread narrowing to a backwardation of $40/mt. HSFO margins flipped back negative, with the Singapore 380 CST crack against Brent assessed at minus 37 cents/b. Drone strikes on Russia's Norsi refinery added supply uncertainty.

21/05/2026

21 May. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing
CRUDE OIL prices rebounded on Thursday on persistent supply anxieties and a record inventory draw, reversing a sharp 5.6% drop on Wednesday. Prices had tumbled after President Trump stated US-Iran peace talks were in their “final stages” and satellite data showed supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. NYMEX July WTI settled down $5.89 at $98.26/b, while ICE July Brent declined $6.26 to $105.02/b before bouncing toward $106/b.

Iran entrenched its control over the vital waterway by establishing a "controlled maritime zone" under a new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority." The EIA reported that commercial crude stocks tumbled 7.86 million barrels to 445 million barrels, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) bled 9.92 million barrels—the largest weekly drawdown on record. Analysts warn that with the strait mostly blocked, global crude and product inventories are on track to plunge below 5-year seasonal lows by late June.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session
GASOLINE market remains physically tight due to minimal Chinese exports, though paper cracks softened in tandem with a narrower US RBOB-Brent spread. FOB Singapore 92 RON cracks dipped to $25.85–$25.90/b. India's Vadinar refinery entered its stabilization phase following a major turnaround, Taiwan’s Formosa awarded a prompt June tender of 500kb at a low-$3/b premium.

NAPHTHA Derivatives weakened as the June-July MOPJ swaps time spread dropped $7/mt to $44/mt. Regional processing setups are shifting; Thailand's PTTGC will commence a one-month turnaround at its Map Ta Phut splitter in June, while South Korea's LG Chem is raising its Yeosu cracker run rate to 85% to counter near-term prompt shortfalls. India's BPCL floated a 36,000 mt export tender for mid-June loading.

JET FUEL/KEROSENE market structure held firm with the June/July FOB Singapore time spread stabilizing at plus $8.75/b, while cash differentials rose 39 cents/b to plus $2.04/b. In a major policy shift, the UK relaxed its sanctions to permit middle distillate imports refined abroad from Russian crude. Australia secured 600 kb of June-delivery jet fuel from China.

GASOIL paper spreads structure narrowed, with the June–July Singapore swap backwardation sliding to $8.35/b. Spot cash premiums for June loading fell to around $1.00/b due to lackluster regional demand. On the supply side, India's Vadinar refinery restarted, and Fujairah's middle distillate stocks climbed 5.3% to 1.189MMB, marking their first weekly build in nearly three months.

FUEL OIL HSFO structure weakened for a second session, dragging the 380 CST cash premium down to $20.81/mt as ample "gray market" barrels satisfied retail bunker demand. Conversely, the LSFO market remains structurally tight on finished grades, holding its physical cargo premium at a high $44.14/mt. At the regional hubs, Fujairah's heavy distillate inventories gained 2.5% to 2.908MMB, slowing the recent steep drawdowns.

20/05/2026

20 May. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing
🛢️BRENT CRUDE FUTURES eased toward $109/b after President Donald Trump delayed a planned Iran strike following requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, reviving hopes for renewed negotiations. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping supply risks elevated. Brent still settled at $112.10/b on May 18, while WTI closed at $108.66/b after gaining more than 10% last week. Market sentiment remains structurally bullish as supply buffers tighten. The IEA estimates around 12.8 million b/d of supply disruption linked to the conflict, while tanker traffic through Hormuz dropped sharply to 11 vessels on May 17 from 21 a day earlier.

Saudi and UAE pipeline rerouting, SPR reliance and floating inventories are temporarily cushioning the market, but traders warn that exhaustion of these buffers could trigger another sharp upside move. API reported a fifth consecutive weekly drop in US crude stocks. A fresh US sanctions 30-day waiver allowing already-loaded Russian crude cargoes provided limited relief.

GASOLINE cracks weakened midafternoon May 19 in line with a narrower US RBOB-Brent crack, despite healthy regional demand. The FOB Singapore 92 RON swaps crack eased to $27.90/b from $28.17/b at the prior close. Australia's gasoline stocks rose 13.71% month over month to 8.63 million barrels in March, supported by an 18.77% surge in imports.

NAPHTHA market stayed rangebound with July supplies expected to tighten as the West-East arbitrage remains shut due to economic constraints and US naphtha being absorbed into summer gasoline blending. The June–July MOPJ swaps time spread was pegged at $52/mt. Japan's Maruzen Petrochemical has been offline since mid-May on weak downstream demand. Singapore's Aster Chemicals announced an $80 million investment to double ethylene.

JET KERO market continued to firm, tracking gasoil gains, with the June/July FOB Singapore swaps time spread widening to plus $8.45/b. The cash differential jumped $1.00/b to plus $1.65/b. Australia's jet imports rose 20.32% year over year in March, with China supplying 2.66 million barrels. China's April jet exports fell 34.9% month over month to 990,000 mt amid export controls.

GASOIL backwardation narrowed after Trump delayed Iran strikes, with the June–July swaps spread easing to $8.50/b from $9.19/b. The 10 ppm–500 ppm differential narrowed to $8.78/b on rising demand for higher-sulfur barrels from Vietnam. Sri Lanka's Ceypetco sought 1.12 million barrels of 500 ppm gasoil.

FUEL OIL LSFO differentials strengthened for a third straight session on limited on-spec cargo availability due to blending constraints. The Singapore 0.5%S marine fuel cash differential spiked $8.25/mt to a premium of $45.83/mt. The Hi-5 spread widened to $131.61/mt, its widest since April 1. Singapore bunker demand remained weak as activity shifted to competing regional ports.

14/05/2026

🛢️ 14 May. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing ,CRUDE OIL FUTURES prices edged up ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing. Both contracts had fallen on May 13, with NYMEX June WTI settling down $1.16/barrel at $101.02/b and ICE July Brent declining $2.14/b to $105.63/b.
The market remains under pressure from geopolitical tensions. The world faces a massive 6 million b/d oil supply shortage that could keep markets tight well beyond 2026 even if the Iran war is resolved. Flows of crude through the Strait of Hormuz fell by nearly 6 million barrels a day in Q1 after hostilities began in late February, with only a trickle of tankers able to exit the Persian Gulf.
US crude oil inventories declined for a third straight week, with commercial crude stocks falling 4.31 million barrels to 452.88 million barrels, marking the first time below the five-year seasonal average since mid-March. Weekly US crude exports climbed 16% to 5.49 million barrels per day.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session

GASOLINE market is rangebound to stronger. While Vietnam saw a 42% MoM drop in April inflows, regional blending interest is rising. Indonesia’s Pertamina is actively seeking high-octane components (105 RON) for June, and cracks against Brent have trended upward to approximately $25.85–$27.10/b.

NAPHTHA market faces headwinds as LNG displaces naphtha in Indian refineries due to a $2–$3/MMBtu price advantage. Consequently, Indian refiners like BPCL are increasing export tenders to capture firm international premiums. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KPIC has capped steam cracker utilization at 72% due to softened demand.

JET FUEL/KEROSENE is softening as new June-loading spot cargoes emerge from South Korea (GS Caltex). While high prices (averaging $200.42/b in April) have curbed some buying appetite in Vietnam, downstream aviation demand remains resilient, with passenger traffic up 2.2% year-over-year.

GASOIL (DIESEL) market remains rangebound despite emerging supply from Taiwan (Formosa) and South Korea. Fujairah middle distillate stocks saw a marginal 0.1% rebound, though they remain near record lows. In Vietnam, April imports slipped 40.86% MoM as high prices deterred buyers, even as domestic production rose 8.8%.

FUEL OIL HSFO market faces a "tank-top" situation in the Far East due to high Russian and Mexican arrivals. High-viscosity inflows are straining the availability of blending components. LSFO Market structure is weakening, with the May-June backwardation narrowing. In the Middle East, Kuwait’s exports remain under force majeure due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and nearing storage capacity.

12/05/2026

🛢️ 12 May. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing

CRUDE OIL futures settled sharply higher after President Trump characterized the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support,” rejecting Tehran’s counterproposal as “totally unacceptable.” Brent is holding above $104/b while WTI is nearing $98/b. Traders are pricing in a prolonged disruption as the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) remains effectively restricted, with Iran asserting sovereignty over the waterway.

OPEC Output: April production hit its lowest level in two decades.
Aramco Outlook: CEO Amin Nasser warned that weekly losses of 100 million barrels could delay market stability until 2027.

Emergency Measures: The U.S. announced a loan of 53.3 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to temper prices, with the first shipment en route to Turkey.

Geopolitical Escalation: Reports surfaced of UAE military strikes on an Iranian refinery (Lavan Island), while the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on entities facilitating Iranian oil sales to China.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session

GASOLINE market remains rangebound. While China’s May exports are expected to fall, regional balances are supported by consistent demand from Indonesia. 92 RON gasoline cracks against Brent are holding steady near $22.25/b. Market participants remain cautious as the SOH closure continues to block major transit routes.

NAPHTHA Despite heightened geopolitical risk, the market is pressured by "lengthy supply." Tenders from India's BPCL and HPCL added volume to the market. In South Korea, government subsidies for feedstock costs have boosted refinery runs, with Lotte Chemical increasing Daesan cracker operations to 85% capacity.

GASOIL Backwardation in the Asian 10ppm market widened significantly, with the June-July spread reaching $9.35/b. Sentiment firmed as traders, who had partially priced in a peace deal, adjusted to the reality of continued conflict. In Europe, ARA diesel/gasoil stocks fell to 1.808 million mt, the lowest level since August.

JET KERO Sentiment is mixed but recovering. The FOB Singapore cash differential rose to +$2.20/b, rebounding from post-outbreak lows. Demand is supported by Indonesian spot interest, with Pertamina seeking 800,000 barrels for June delivery. European prices (NWE) continue to soften relative to the front-month gasoil futures.

FUEL OIL Market structures for both LSFO and HSFO remain in backwardation due to persistent tightness, though cash premiums saw a slight pullback. The 380 CST HSFO premium dropped to $24.20/mt following competitive offers. High-sulfur supply remains constricted in Europe as low-sulfur feedstocks are diverted for blending.

08/05/2026

🛢️ 08 May. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing
CRUDE OIL markets were volatile, whipsawing between peace optimism and renewed hostilities. Brent topped $102/b on May 8 after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz with US Central Command confirming "defensive strikes" following Iranian targeting of Navy destroyers. Iran's state media attributed the attack to a prior US strike on an Iranian tanker. Trump warned bombing would resume "at a much higher level" if Iran rejected the US peace proposal, which was transmitted via Pakistan on May 6 and sought a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the French carrier Charles de Gaulle transited Suez toward the Red Sea to support navigation efforts. IFAD Murban futures hit a 3-year volume low in April, falling 58.7% MOM, reflecting suppressed physical activity. US crude stocks fell 2.31 million barrels to a six-week low, while exports averaged a record 5.3 million b/d on a four-week basis.

GASOLINE cracks strengthened on declining prompt supply from South Korea and India. The FOB Singapore 92 RON crack against Brent reached $27.60–$27.70/b physically. However, the 95/92 RON spread hit a near four-month low of $1.06/b, with traders flagging excess octane, particularly MTBE. India's gasoline demand fell 2.54% MOM but rose 6.81% YOY to 3.684 million mt in April.

NAPHTHA Ample supply weighed heavily on Asian naphtha. Many cargoes remain unsold, and the market would face severe weakness if Hormuz reopened. The May-June MOPJ swaps time spread fell $8/mt to $47/mt. India's naphtha consumption dropped 19.51% MOM to 759,000 mt in April, driven by substitution with cheaper Russian-origin cargoes. CFR Japan crack fell $23.98/mt DoD to $171/mt.

JET KERO market firmed on Hormuz uncertainty, with the May/June FOB Singapore swaps time spread widening to $6.46/b. However, the cargo cash differential softened to $3.83/b, and the East-West arb remained only marginally viable. India's ATF demand was flat YOY at 771,146 mt in April. Australia announced a government-owned 1-billion-litre fuel reserve, with A$10 billion in budget support.

GASOIL backwardation held rangebound, with the June-July Singapore swaps spread at $6.78/b. The FOB Singapore 10 ppm cash differential eased to $3.23/b. India's gasoil demand slipped 4.52% MOM to 8.33 million mt but rose 0.85% YOY. Europe's April diesel imports fell sharply to 2 million mt from 4.2 million mt in March. The gasoil EFS widened to minus $94.36/mt, improving East-West arb economics.

FUEL OIL LSFO structure slipped but the 0.5%S cargo cash premium rose to $30/mt— on firm H2 May bids. The East-West spread held at $72/mt though it has narrowed 45% over the past month. HSFO differentials strengthened on tight supply, with 380 CST premiums hitting post-March highs. Fujairah heavy distillate stocks fell to a record low of 6.5 million barrels, down 69% since the US-Iran war began.

07/05/2026

🛢️ 07 May. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing

CRUDE OIL FUTURES experienced extreme volatility, with prices tumbling over 7% on Wednesday before rebounding by approximately $1 on Thursday. ICE July Brent settled near $101.27/b and NYMEX June WTI at $95.08/b. The primary driver was a sudden shift in geopolitical sentiment: President Trump announced "great progress" toward a peace deal with Iran and paused Operation Project Freedom (the naval es**rt program).
Despite this "fragile optimism," physical fundamentals remain critically tight. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, while the U.S. Navy notably disabled an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman for violating blockade enforcement. Analysts warn that even if a ceasefire is reached, a meaningful recovery in supply volumes would not occur until June at the earliest, as global inventories continue to be depleted to meet peak summer demand. Liquidity in derivative markets has deteriorated due to high volatility. Significant maintenance is planned for Reliance’s Jamnagar unit in mid-May, which may further tighten regional product availability as the Nayara turnaround concludes.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session

GASOLINE markets strengthened as physical cracks widened significantly. The FOB Singapore 92 RON crack rose to over $25/b, while the 95/92 inter-RON spread narrowed to a four-month low of $1.06/b. Regional demand remains cautious, but Pertamina is actively seeking up to 1.4 million barrels for May-June delivery.

NAPHTHA Market structure moderated, with the May-June swap time spread easing to $58/mt. Supply activity remains steady: Formosa is seeking 30,000 mt for June, and India's HPCL sold a May cargo at a premium in the $90s/mt. In Indonesia, Chandra Asri lifted its force majeure as operations stabilized.

JET KERO market remains soft as regional supply improves. The FOB Singapore cash premium tumbled to $5.08/b (down from double-digits in April). Global air traffic growth slowed to 2.1% in March, largely due to a sharp decline in volumes from Middle Eastern carriers.

GASOIL market weakened on peace deal prospects, with the June-July swap spread narrowing to $8.88/b. However, U.S. distillate stocks hit a 21-year low, and inventories at the Fujairah hub reached record lows for the fifth straight week, falling 69% since the conflict began.

FUEL OIL Both LSFO and HSFO markets are exceptionally firm. LSFO cracks hit a four-week high of $16.90/b on expectations of June stock drawdowns. Meanwhile, the 380 CST HSFO cash premium soared to a six-week high of $38.83/mt, driven by persistent buying interest from BP.

05/05/2026

04 May. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing

CRUDE OIL MARKET sentiment softened slightly as optimism emerged around potential easing of the Hormuz disruption. Brent traded flat after the U.S. announced “Project Freedom” to help stranded civilian vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran signaled it was reviewing Washington’s response to its latest proposal, improving hopes for diplomacy. Barclays raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $100/b from $85/b, warning a prolonged disruption could create a larger and more persistent oil shock.

OPEC+ agreed to raise June quotas by 188,000 b/d despite Middle East production losses and export restrictions. The increase was largely symbolic, with the group emphasizing flexibility to pause or reverse hikes if needed. OPEC+ output in March fell sharply by 8.11 million b/d month over month due to attacks on infrastructure and severe shipping restrictions. The UAE’s departure from OPEC/OPEC+ also reinforces uncertainty over the group’s long-term cohesion and spare capacity management.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session
GASOLINE was rangebound with stable cracks near $10/b. Pakistan’s PSO purchased 55,000 mt of 92 RON gasoline, indicating firm South Asian demand, while expectations of higher Chinese exports capped upside. Singapore gasoline exports plunged 72.8% week over week, mainly due to lower flows to Indonesia and Mexico.

NAPHTHA trading was quiet, though the PX-naphtha spread widened to a nine-month high at $282.67/mt on tight paraxylene supply and hopes of easing US-China trade tensions. The June-July swaps spread eased slightly, while Asian demand remained subdued. Singapore naphtha imports fell 59.5% week over week, especially from South Korea and regional suppliers, while exports collapsed 81.1% week over week.

JET FUEL structure strengthened marginally despite bearish sentiment and sufficient regional supply. The June-July time spread rose slightly, though the jet-gasoil regrade weakened further. China’s Wepec sold June-loading jet fuel cargoes at discounts, reflecting softer prompt demand. Asia-Pacific passenger traffic rising 10.5% year over year in April.

GASOIL sentiment weakened amid tariff uncertainty and unsold June-loading cargoes. The swaps time spread and cash differentials stayed near flat. Singapore gasoil imports rose to an 11-week high led by South Korea and India, while exports declined sharply. In the U.S., the Midwest stocks at an eight-year low due to strong agricultural demand.

FUEL OIL markets were mixed. LSFO cracks and market structure softened as marine fuel premiums declined for a fourth consecutive session, though limited on-spec supply may cap further downside. HSFO cash differentials strengthened to the highest since March due to competitive bidding and tighter availability. Singapore fuel oil inventories rose to a four-week high despite weaker imports, particularly from Europe and the Middle East.

03/05/2026

02 Apr. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing

CRUDE OIL prices surged as the U.S.-Iran conflict reached a deadlock, severely restricting global supply. Brent June futures rose above $122/b, marking a ninth day of gains, while WTI reached $109/b. Market anxiety is fueled by President Trump’s instructions to extend the blockade of Iranian ports and reports of a U.S. CENTCOM strike package intended to break the stalemate. Consequently, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to an average of 5.3 ships/day in April, compared to 63 in February. Adding to the volatility, the UAE officially exits OPEC on May 1 to pursue strategic production flexibility. U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 6.23 million barrels, with a total draw of 13.35 million barrels when including Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases.
On supply policy, a modest OPEC+ output increase (~188 kb/d) is unlikely to offset disruptions, especially with the UAE exiting OPEC and regional production recovery expected to be slow. Overall, supply losses are outweighing demand risks (inflation/demand destruction concerns), sustaining upward price momentum and reinforcing a structurally tight crude market.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session

GASOLINE market weakened as swaps cracks narrowed to $21.25/b. Despite supply concerns from the Hormuz blockade, buying interest in Vietnam softened due to healthy domestic availability. Indian exports fell 14.09% month-over-month in March despite higher production.

NAPHTHA East-West spread hit a six-month low of $30/mt as strong European demand shut the arbitrage window to Asia. While Asian demand remained weak, Indian naphtha imports surged 63.53% in March as buyers utilized cheaper Russian cargoes following a U.S. waiver.

JET FUEL Sentiment softened as May requirements were largely covered, pushing Singapore cash differentials to a seven-week low of $11.23/b. Despite easing prices, Asia-Pacific passenger traffic rose 8.5% year-over-year in March, supported by increased demand on Asia-Europe routes.

GASOIL softened due to weaker regional demand, with May-June swaps spreads narrowing to $10.60/b. India’s March gasoil exports rose 20.37% month-over-month, though lower Asian premiums may now divert these "swing barrels" toward the West.

FUEL OIL Cargo differentials declined for four consecutive sessions despite a backwardated market structure. Singapore supply remains tight due to the Hormuz closure and reduced Russian inflows following drone attacks on the export-oriented Tuapse refinery.

29/04/2026

29 Apr. 26 - Oil Market Daily Briefing
CRUDE OIL Crude extended a strong rally, with Brent near $112/b and WTI around $100/b, driven by expectations that the US will prolong its blockade of Iranian ports, deepening Middle East supply disruptions. Prices have risen for 7–8 consecutive sessions as the Strait of Hormuz—handling ~20% of global oil and LNG—remains effectively shut, severely restricting flows. The blockade and stalled negotiations have created sustained physical tightness, with up to 10 million b/d of crude and products reportedly trapped. Limited vessel traffic underscores the disruption. Falling US inventories (crude -1.79 mb, gasoline -8.47 mb, distillates -2.60 mb) reinforce tightening balances. While inflation and demand destruction risks are rising, supply constraints are expected to dominate near-term pricing. Structurally, the UAE’s planned exit from OPEC adds longer-term uncertainty around supply management, potentially weakening the group’s ability to stabilize markets.

ASIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUMMARY – previous session

GASOLINE weakened as cracks narrowed (to ~$21.4/b swaps), reflecting softer refining margins despite high crude. Physical cracks also declined. Supply-demand fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with stable demand led by Indonesia. Disruptions such as repeated drone strikes on Russia’s Tuapse refinery add supply-side risk, though not enough to offset broader softness.

NAPHTHA fundamentals softened, with weaker Asian demand and declining time spreads with the May-June MOPJ time spread falling $9/mt to $73/mt. Arbitrage may shift toward stronger Northwest Europe markets. Operational changes (shutdown of Taiwan CPC’s steam cracker) and tender activity (Mitsubishi Chemical buying) provided support, but overall sentiment remains weak.

JET KERO sentiment softened slightly. Backwardation narrowed (from $15.90/b to $11.25/b May-June), and cash premiums fell to multi-week lows (~$13.7/b) due to increased supply. South Korea and reduced panic buying. However, demand remains active, with Indonesia increasing spot purchases.

GASOIL softened despite geopolitical tensions. Backwardation narrowed (~$13.5/b from $14.70/b), and cash differentials declined sharply week over week, indicating adequate supply and limited demand. Singapore inventories remain sufficient, while tenders from Sri Lanka show steady demand. Structural changes such as Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel push may influence future demand patterns.

FUEL OIL markets show mixed signals. Structural tightness persists (strong backwardation in HSFO and LSFO), driven by limited resupply amid Hormuz disruption. However, cash differentials continued to decline due to weak downstream/bunker demand. Supply constraints are evident (reduced Middle East flows, tight blending components), but demand weakness is capping price strength.

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