22/03/2025
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*** 2025 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST ***
- SUMMARY: This upcoming hurricane season looks to average a little above average in terms of the number of storms that occur. All indications seem to point towards neutral ENSO conditions occurring during the peak of the hurricane season. This combined with above average ocean temperatures in the Gulf and across the subtropics should help to produce an above average hurricane season. One factor that might negate a really active hurricane season is that the subtropics may end up more above average than the deep tropics leading to more stable air to occur. This, in turn, would lead to tropical systems having a more difficult time developing and waiting to develop until they are out of the deep tropics.
Additionally, I do think that this could be an East Coast season where most of the tropical storm and hurricane threats are concentrated along the East Coast of the United States. Two other areas stand out as potential areas of risk in terms of tropical storm/hurricane threats – One is the central Gulf Coast and the second is across the northeastern Caribbean.
- THE NUMBERS: 16 Named Storms, 7 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
- ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX FORECAST: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 140, which signals that this will probably be an above average season.
- ENSO CONDITIONS: All data is pointing towards neutral ENSO conditions by the time we reach June, July and August. These neutral ENSO conditions are forecast to remain in place right through this Fall.
The prospects of neutral ENSO conditions is an enhancing influence on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that at least somewhat above average activity can be expected this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: Areas from the central and western Gulf through the Caribbean are currently warmer than average with below average ocean temperatures found across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. This overall look in ocean temperatures is cooler than what we saw at this time last year.
The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where tropical systems wait to really get going until they are north of 20 North Latitude or wait until they reach the Gulf.
- ANALOG YEARS: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2025 hurricane season may be like. They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021
- LANDFALL THREAT FORECAST: There are three areas that I’m most concerned about for this upcoming season in terms of a tropical storm or hurricane impact.
The First Area Is the area from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. As I mentioned previously, all indications seem to be pointing towards this being an East Coast concentrated season for tropical storm or hurricane threats. Based on this, in addition to model guidance and analog data, I do think that a corridor from South Carolina and North Carolina northward to Southern New England could be an area to really watch.
The Second Area Of Particular Concern Is across the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Model guidance and analog data seems to be pointing towards the possibility of any tropical systems moving westward from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic to begin curving west-northwest and northwest just before they reach the Caribbean. This leads to the potential for these tropical systems to directly impact the northeastern Caribbean before they either head further west towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States or curve northward into the open Atlantic.
Another Area Of Some Concern Is the area from the northwestern Caribbean northward to the central Gulf coast where any tropical disturbances moving westward may begin to strengthen by the time they reach the northwestern Caribbean and then head for the central Gulf Coast.
Even though your area may have a low or medium risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten the low or medium risk areas.
Finally, we will begin sending out regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Monday, May 12th.
