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Seth's Weather Report, Broomfield, CO (2026)

10/20/2026

10/19/26 8:30pm: I saw today that Denver's average date of first snowfall officially shifted by one day, to today: Oct 19th, but when you look at the last 10 years the shift if much more dramatic and seems to be a troubling trend (if you love early season snow like myself).

Now, as many of you know I love snowfall statistics and have been measuring snow at my house for the last 20 years (as you can see below in my seasonal snowfall table lol). So I crunched the numbers for the last 10 years, removing September 2020 because it was such an outlier, and you can see below there is a pretty dramatic shift in first snowfall.

My average date of first snowfall over the last 20 years is Oct 26th (so already much later than Denver's date which includes 120 years of data).

Looking at the last 10 years, but excluding 2020 (which was a huge anomaly), my average date for first snowfall shifts to November 2nd. Similarly if you look at Denver’s first snowfall the last 10 years (excluding 2020) it is November 3rd, so quite a big shift in dates (compared to Oct 19th), granted over 10 years.

Also, my average seasonal snowfall over the last 20 years is 72” but if you take just the last 10 years its only 64” and if you look at the last 5 years the average drops to 55”, also not a great trend for snow on the front-range.

And Denver’s average is 56”of snow (over all seasons), but if you look at the last 10 years its also down to just 45”.

So its not in your head its been later first snowfall and less snow in the last several years.

Now granted 10 years doesn't represent a climate average or strong statistical trend, you need 30 years for that, but still its a troubling trend and I would like to see it reversed... I really miss the days of early season snowfall (I know we had Sep 2020, but that was such an outlier in the last 20 years).

Anyway, overall with the changing climage, I have noticed we now have warmer / drier falls overall but on the flipside maybe cooler / wetter springs (although that is debatable).

All of this is a combination of climate change (warmer temps well into mid-Oct) and somewhat a coincidence of a less favorable / less active storm track during fall the last 10 years.

Now for this season, I still do think that as we head towards winter it will get more active for all of the state (not just southern CO). Hopefully in November, but I still think the most active part of the pattern will be in late winter to spring (Feb-Apr).

And lastly, this is relevant because unfortunately looks like another late first snowfall for Den/Bou area this year, likely into November based on what I'm seeing in the models; makes sense since our "new" average is Nov 2nd.

Thats all for now. What are your thoughts on the shifting first snowfall (and total snowfall to some degree)?

Below I show snowfall statistics for my house in Westminster over the last 20 years and also for Denver over the last several years (From Den/Bou NWS office).

10/19/2026

10/19/26 8:30am: Morning, its Monday. As I mentioned yesterday we do have some weather coming up this week, but it will mostly impact west / southwest CO and parts of the mountains.

But models show two storm systems: first one impacting the state from 12pm Wed through 12pm Fri favoring southwest CO (warmer / rain).

Then a second, colder storm system from about 12pm Sat through 6am Sun, favoring both southwest CO but also parts of the north-central mountains (and maybe even a better chance for rain showers for Den/Bou and the front-range on Sat afternoon / evening).

Prior to this, models show a round of scattered thunderstorms and rain showers for parts of the mountains today, mostly from Summit county west including parts of the central mountains and southern CO from 2pm-9pm today. Hit or miss storms. Snow-level generally above 12,500ft.

Overall fairly dry most of Tuesday: except a few late afternoon weak thunderstorms / rain showers near the Cont. Divide, mostly after 3pm tomorrow.

Then deeper moisture and rain (snow above 12k ft) moves into southwest CO and the San Juans after 9am Wed.

Models show a fairly warm, southwest flow rain event, bringing heavy rain to parts of southwest CO (favoring the San Juans) from about 3pm Wed through at least 9am Fri, with biggest impacts on Thu afternoon / evening. Snow levels will generally remain above 12k ft through Thu afternoon but may drop to 10,500ft by Fri am.

Models shows 1-3" of liquid precip for parts of southwest CO and as I mentioned there could be some flooding concerns across the San Juans, late Wed, Thu into Fri.

The north-central mountains will also get a round of rain/snow on Thu into Fri: 12pm-9pm Thu will be the window, showery. Snow above 12k ft. Heaviest amounts will be from Aspen south and west.

Then models show a secondary short-wave / upper-level low moving across southern CO on Sat into Sun....

That wave will bring a round of rain/snow to the north-central and south-central mountains from 12pm Sat through 6am Sun.... snow-levels will likely drop to 9500ft with that wave, so some snow accum in the mountains (unclear exact amounts yet but our local mountains could get some).

For Den/Bou and the front-range, generally pretty warm and dry over the next 7-12 days. But looks like a cool-down with a better chance for some rain showers on Sat into Sun, maybe best chances from 3pm Sat to 3am Sun (best chances for showers will be near/along the Palmer Divide and in the foothills).

Beyond that little wave on Sat for the front-range, we may have to wait until around Halloween into early Nov: Oct 31st to Nov 3rd for the next more substantial storm and chance for snow. Unfortunately likely going to be into Nov before our first snowfall again this season, boo!

First image loop shows forecast radar over the next 48hrs (6am this morning to 6am Wed) from latest HRRR. Second image shows forecast high/low (max/min) temps for Boulder over the next 15 days from ECMWF. Third image shows forecast total liquid precip from now through 6am Sat (for the first storm system) from latest ECMWF (pretty much the same as yesterday). Fourth image shows the potential Sat/Sun wave bringing some rain ands now to the mountains on Sat afternoon via forecast precip-type/rate from ECMWF.

10/18/2026

10/18/26 10:30am: Hi, I hope you are having a good Sunday morning. Let's take a look at what we can expect with our next storm system that will impact parts of the state from Wed afternoon through Fri afternoon. We are looking at a southwest flow event with warm temps, favoring the San Juans.

Models show an upper-level low approaching the Great Basin (near the UT/AZ border) on Wed into Thu. But the storm tracks keep the main low west of CO (moving it from central Utah into WY on Thu/Fri). So this will keep CO under strong southwest flow with the biggest impacts over western / southwest CO, with limited impacts further east.

So we are looking at another big round of rain (and snow up high) for southwest CO, favoring the San Juans primarily from 12pm Wed through 6pm Thu. With biggest impacts / (main wave), Thu afternoon into Fri am. Even prior to this some lighter rain/snow showers move into western CO / San Juans after 12pm Tue.

Models show the potential for 2-3" of liquid precip over southwest CO, so there could be some flooding concerns in the San Juans on Wed, Thu and Fri, so heads up there.

Now the thing is we are looking at relatively warm temps especially Tue/ Wed into Thu. So initially we are looking at the snow-levels mostly above 12k ft through Thu am. Then the snow-level may drop to 10,500ft by Thu night into Fri. So some snow accum for parts of the San Juans, southern Elks, southern Sawatch and Grand Mesa areas but will be limited and much higher up.

North-central mountains will get some rain/snow mostly from 12pm Thu through 6pm Fri but it will be more limited and showery (some precip accum). High snow-levels as I mentioned. Best chances will be south of I-70 and west of Vail Pass.

And unfortunately with the forecast strong southwest flow aloft (and at the mid-levels) likely very little to no rain for Den/Bou and the front-range (too much southwest downslope flow). Best chance for a few showers would be on Thu afternoon / evening (at least turning cloudy).

Rain/snow showers could linger in the mountains into Sat am, then it will likely clear out.

Looking ahead, Next storm system arrives around Oct26th/27th but that could be a repeat of this one: strong southwest flow favoring southern CO, we shall see.

First image shows forecast total liquid precip from now through 12am Sat from very latest (06z) ECMWF model (take amounts with a big grain of salt, it will change some). Second image shows the overall storm track / flow with this next storm system. Image 3 shows forecast precip-type/rate at 3pm Thu from latest ECMWF model.

10/17/2026

10/16/26 10pm: Hi, hope you are having a good Fri evening. We were just at the Standley Lake football game in west Arvada and it was chilly (low 40s), but that cold fall air feels so good!

Anyway, just wanted to mention: the updated seasonal forecasts for winter was released yesterday by NOAA and its consistent with current thinking and with what we would expect from a strong El Nino. Currently already a recording breaking El Nino with an SST anomaly of +3.3 degC in the Nino 3.4 region.

The Seasonal Precipitation Outlook has some real nice signals for Jan, Feb and Mar and that will likely be the the most active part of the pattern for CO (Jan 15 - Apr 15 is my thinking). This is as we come off the strongest El Nino temp anomalies and slowly transition back to neutral (that is when it usually the most active).

But even before this for winter Dec, Jan, Feb still good signals, but favoring southern CO and the front-range to some degree.

In terms of temperatures: chances don't favor either warmer or cooler than average...my sense is warmer in between storms, but hopefully enough storms and snow to cool things down. But signals are good for something closer to normal winter.

And as I mentioned, after this current break in the weather back to an active weather pattern from Oct 22-28.

Below I show current El Nino Conditions and the forecast from the ECMWF Seasonal Model Ensemble. Images 2 and 3 show the Precip Outlooks for Dec-Jan-Feb and Jan-Feb-Mar. Image 4 shows the temp outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar (its the same for Dec-Jan-Feb)

10/16/2026

10/16/26 8:30am: Happy Friday! Here are your Fri weather graphics: coldest low temps of the season so far (image 1). Some very impressive liquid / rain amounts from this last storm system (image 2) and also some good snow amounts for the mountains (image 3).

Cold out there this morning, with the first freeze of the season for much of Den/Bou/Ft.Collins and the northern front-range. At my house in Westminster, I recorded a low temp of 29 degs. It was officially 28 for Denver (at the airport, downtown close to 30). And even some single digits to teens in the mountains.

Here are some notable low temps this morning:

Long Draw Res (near Cameron Pass): 7
Fraser (near WP): 10
Jefferson (north of Fairplay): 11
Leadville: 14
Frisco: 18
Walden: 18
Gunnison: 21
Nederland: 22
Silverton: 22
Steamboat: 23
Meeker: 23
Alamosa: 24
Buena Vista: 24
Edwards: 24
Aspen: 24
Denver: 28
Ft. Collins: 29
Delta: 32
Boulder: 33

Image 2 shows 72hr observed liquid precip / rainfall from MRMS (it is an analysis product so can be a little bit off in spots). But really impressive to see 1.50" to 3.00" of liquid precip across almost all of western CO. Also as we saw yesterday a sold 0.50" to 1.75" across the front-range (Den/Bou) and parts of the central / eastern mountains. North-central mountains generally 0.25" to 0.50" and the eastern plains generally 0.10" to 0.40". It was a much needed precip event!

Finally image 3 shows 72hr observed snowfall from NOHRSC (it is also an analysis product so can be a off in spots as well). Great to see 12-24" across parts or the western San Juans and Grand Mesa areas. With more like 4-12" for the rest of the mountains with locally highest amounts from Hoosier Pass across parts of the northern Sawatch Range.

Later we wil look at a list of top 3-day CoCoRaHS reports.

In terms of weather over the next 7-days: a nice break in the weather for the most part. Dry and sunny, except a few rain/snow showers over the mountains and western CO by next Tue/Wed

Then the weather pattern gets active again from Oct 22-28th with multiple storms systems in the forecast. More mountain snow is likely (could be heavy in spots). And also looks like Den/Bou will have a chance for its first snow of the season around Oct 25th...but its a ways out, so who knows. Bottom line it looks active at the end of Oct into Nov.

10/16/2026

10/15/26 7:35pm: Hi. We have our first official snowfall contest winner. Congratulations to Kate Knopp for winning the First Snowfall prediction for Dillon / Summit Co area, with a date of 10/15 (1.7"), she was one of 3 people that picked 10/15 listed below. Official observation was 10/14 (at Dan's house) and a total of 1.1" (from a nearby CoCoRaHS site).

Here were the other entries:

Kate Knopp: Summit County: October 15th, 1.7”
Scott Tandberg: Dillon- 10/15, 2”
Bobby Mass: Dillon October 15 6.2”

Now when I saw that name, it looked familiar...turns out Kate won the First Snowfall contest in 2024 for Westminster (Denver area), which is crazy. Kate you are a snow a psychic apparently and I need to take future advice from you! But that is awesome!

Give Kate and congratulation and I'll be sending her $50 as well!

Love the snow, tis the season!

First image is current certificate. Second image is from Dan's place in Dillon last night. Third image shows Kate winning certificate from 2024!

Note this includes all entries from my weather pager (Seth's Weather Report) and the group (Seth's Weather Group).

10/15/2026

10/15/26 8:10am: Morning. Last part or the storm system is moving through now with some more rain and snow on the front-range and eastern plains and some snow showers over parts of the northern / front-range mountains. So great to see the big rain totals on the front-range and even some snow overnight in the mountains.

I'm heading out now so just a quick look at some notable totals. Later I'll put together a bigger list of official totals and we will look at MRMS (rain) and NOHRSC (snow):

A few notable 48hr rain totals on the front-range from CoCoRaHS:

Boulder 3.0 SSW: 1.77”
Arvada 7.1 WNW: 1.51”
Boulder 1.7 N: 1.47”
Golden 3.3 ENE: 1.21”
Evergreen 2.5 SSW: 1.12”
Lakewood 1.4 SE: 1.01”
Lafayette 0.7 WSW: 1.00”
Broomfield 1.2 NE: 0.93”
Littleton 4.7 W: 0.93”
Fort Collins 2.8 W: 0.90”
Westminster 1.1 SW (my house): 0.79”
Longmont 2.1 N: 0.72”
Denver 0.2 NNW (Botanic G): 0.57”

Using SNOTEL snow-height data here are some snow totals:

Beartown (near Silverton, N. San Juans): 15”
Grand Mesa Skyway: 13.5”
Independence Pass: 5.7”
Cottonwood Pass: 5.0”
Hoosier Pass: 5.0”
Berthoud Pass: 4.0”

Here are some ski area totals estimated from snow-stakes and reports:

Silverton Mtn: 15”
Steamboat top: 8-9”
Wolf Creek: 7-8” (up top)
Powderhorn: 7-8”
Breckenridge: 4-5"
Loveland: 4”
Beaver Creek: 4" (2" in last 24hrs)
Winter Park: 3-4”
Snowmass: 3-4”
Purgatory: 3-4”
Keystone: 3”
A-Basin: 3”
Vail: 2” (1” in the last 2hrs)

I'll have more later. First image is current KFTG (Denver) radar. Second image is a map snippet showing 48hr reports from CoCoRaHS over Den/Bou. Images 3 and 4 are current snow-stake views of Steamboat and Breckenridge.

10/15/2026

10/14/26 8:35pm: Hi. Just quick update on the current storm system. Models have not had a good handle on the second half of the storm and its pretty clear now on radar that the low is tracking further north / northwest than what the models showed yesterday.

The position of the low (as you can see in image 1 puts many areas in no-mans land in terms of lift, we need the low much further south or east really).

So this means a shift in the rain/snow further north tonight and less for many areas...but at least it been a darn good event already for the front-range.

Actually still raining hard at at my house in Westminster and I already have > 0.80" for this event. Much of the northern metro area Den/Bou/Ft.Collins has picked up 0.75" to 1.75" of rain already (with highest amounts near Boulder). More rain tonight into tomorrow (but < 0.25" more for many areas).

Parts of the foothills and Palmer Divide could still see some snow-showers late tonight / early tomorrow morning (won't be much). There will also be some gusty north / northwest winds tomorrow morning through mid-day.

Unfortunately likely a bust in spots (in terms of snowfall) for parts of the north-central mountains. Just not great wind-flow with the position of the low (and the east to west wind has produced some downslope holes at times). But some more snow tonight mostly from Berthoud Pass north, favoring northern IPW, RMNP and Cameron Pass areas and parts of the Park Range (maybe 2-6" for those areas). Further south, not much 1/2"-2" more.

On the flip-side a really good event for southern and western CO. Part of the Grand Mesa and San Juans near Silverton have picked up > 15" of snow.

Also some heavy rain near Grand Junction to Meeker to Craig, I even saw areas above Meeker picked > 6" of snow and tons of precip.

Lastly there is a Freeze Watch in place for Den/Bou and the lower elevations of the eastern plains for Friday morning: low temps expected between 25-30 (so could be a hard freeze in the favored spots), heads up there.

That's all for now. We will look at official rain/snow totals tomorrow (maybe in the afternoon).

First image is current composite radar with the location of the low. Image 2 and 3 show forecast additional rain and snow through 1pm Thu from latest HRRR (take with grain of salt). Fourth image shows where the current Freeze Watches are.

10/15/2026

10/14/26 8:20pm. Hi, hope you are enjoying the storm. A bit interesting this evening, I'll have more on that soon. But we finally have some First Snowfall Contest winners, at least for the first part of the contest, which is who gets the first snow of the season at their house (residential location) across CO. Since no one picks dates for this part and its really based on living in the high-mountains, I just give out a certificate to the winner(s).

Hard to beat the Hoosier Pass communities which sit at > 11k ft.
Congrats to both Doug Treiber and Victor William Lewis for winning this year's contest and many years in the past lol. I think Doug has won it probably 5 out of 7 years running the contest.

I included some photos / screen shots from Doug (image 3) and Victor (image 4).

Congrats guys! About time (this one was late this year). You can print the certificates if you want :)

10/14/2026

10/14/26 9:45am: Here is a quick look at expected additional rain and snow amounts through Thu night. As I mentioned we have 2 more parts of the storm system to go but it is a bit unclear how its going to evolve. Some of the latest trends have the low tracking a bit farther northwest today into tomorrow and that could limit precip in spots (especially across parts of the north-central mountains).

Next round of rain/snow for both the front-range: Den/Bou (and adjacent mountains) : from about 11am-8pm today, then a break

Last round from 3am-2pm Thu: colder, northwest flow that will favor parts of the north-central mountains.

Den/Bou could get 0.25" to 0.75" of additional rain.

As I mentioned likely less rain/snow for the north-central mountains in/around Grand, ClearCreek, Summit, and Eagle counties. Generally 4-10" of snow total between the two next rounds (mostly above 9k ft), favoring area along/east of the Cont. Divide (from near Hoosier Pass to A-Basin, to Loveland Pass (ski area), Berthoud/Jones Passes, IPW, RMNP and especially Cameron Pass, those areas will be favored).

There could be less snow west of Summit Co: models show less in Eagle Co (some models runs have very little for Vail, with the position of the low, maybe some for BC, but less in those areas for sure).

Borderline rock skiing conditions tomorrow lol

First image shows the position of the upper-level low at 6pm this evening (I would love to see that about 50-100 miles further south).

Images 2-5 show forecast additional liquid precip and snowfall from very latest (12z) HRRR and RRFS model runs, take with a grain of salt (you can see some differences between these two high-res models). Forecasting is hard in CO!

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