06/05/2026
Euro Ensemble (different weather model groups) all show a record-setting El Niño peaking this winter. Several runs show temperature anomalies in the Central and Eastern Pacific reaching +4.0C.
The previous record is between +2.5C to +3.0C during the Winter or 1877-1878. Other El-Nino events that featured +2.5 °C-ish departures in the Central/East Pacific were 1997-98 and 2015-16. Other recent significant El-Nino events include: 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92, and 2023-24, which featured departures of +1.6C to +2.0C.
A Historic El-Nino will amplify the typical El Niño effects. This could include our area
* An active subtropical jet over/near our area this summer that could lead to locally significant flash flooding (similar to 2023 on the extreme end).
* El Niño winters tend to be quite warm, especially the November-December period. I would say we have at least a 70% of having a Top-5 warmest November and December, and at least a 40% of having either (if not both) the warmest November or December on record (perhaps the warmest in 1,000+ years). Since El Niño winters feature a weaker-than-normal polar jet, the early months tend to be the warmest relative to normal. The chance of a White Christmas this year is pretty much zero. Severe/tornado threats would need to be watched.
* Depending on said subtropical jet this winter, we could either have a dry winter 2026-27 and following spring that would reanimate drought conditions (if the subtropical jet stays along the Gulf Coast), or a wetter than normal winter/spring, with flooding risks like 2015-16, if it is more expansive and further north. If we do get enough cold air for a time or two, then a risk for one or two heavy wet snow events would be on the table.
* The effects across much of the Southern Hemisphere and large parts of Asia would be greater than in North America, because El Niño impacts Monsoon patterns, leading to intense drought in some areas, and major flooding in others, leading to intense food insecurity and hunger risks across sections of these areas internationally.
