09/17/2026
Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES
Unprecedented September heat rolls on. Temps remain well above average for lows (10 of the first 16 days of September have set record warm lows) and for highs (we've had 4 record highs along with 10 straight triple-digit days). We're strengthening our hold over the title of hottest September on record. We tied the record of 101 at Camp Mabry on Wednesday, and tied the record of 99 at Austin Bergstrom.
And we're not done yet. I'm forecasting 100 on Thursday, which would break the daily record of 99 from 2021. We may also see another record warm low. I'm forecasting 79, which would break the current record of 78 from 1988.
Temps at or near 100 are possible for another week, and the hopes of a legit fall cold front are on hold.
SPOTTY SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
The potential of meaningful rain on Thursday is continuing to drop. I'm keeping a 20% chance of afternoon to evening spotty showers and stray downpours, but most people will miss out on rain. In light of the first possible fall front fizzling before reaching us on Monday and Tuesday, I've pulled Monday's rain chances. I do have 20% chances Tuesday and Wednesday, but it's possible we go another week with little to no rain. For most, maybe up to 1/10" is possible.
FIRST FALL FRONT FIZZLES, BUT ANOTHER MAY FINALLY ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK
I'm no longer expecting a cold front to push through early next week. That would have been nice, to have a well-timed front to welcome the arrival of autumn. The autumnal equinox is at 7:04 pm Tuesday. Instead, Tuesday looks like it will be in the upper 90s with only isolated rain chances.
Computer models aren't in great agreement, but I am seeing signs of a cold front finally arriving late Thursday or more likely next Friday, September 25th. Winds may turn out of the north/northeast, dew points may drop into the comfy 40s or 50s, temps may be in the low to mid 90s rather than upper 90s to 100. Or, it's also possible that this is all a pipe dream and models flip again and deny us a taste of fall. Time will tell.
SEPTEMBER HEAT TALLY
September 1-16 hottest on record
Triple-digit streak: 10 | Record: 45 days in 2023
Triple-digits this year: 48 (11th most) | 1991-2020 annual average: 29
Hottest this Year: 107 on August 22nd and 23rd
AIR QUALITY UPDATE
Air quality dropped into the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups zone on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to be good on Thursday as the Saharan dust plume will be dissipating.
FIRE DANGER
Fire danger was high on Wednesday, but should improve to moderate on Thursday. Burn Bans are in effect for all of the CBS Austin area: Mason, Gillespie, Llano, Burnet, Blanco, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Caldwell, Bastrop, Lee, Fayette, and Milam Counties.
LAKE LEVELS
Travis: 676.29 (92% full), Buchanan: 1018.59 (97% full) Combined: 94%
TROPICS UPDATE
In the Atlantic, one disturbance has a low chance of development. In the Pacific, there were two disturbances both with medium development chances.
Colorado State University issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast August 5th, calling for only 9 named storms (average is 14), 4 hurricanes (7 is average), and 1 major hurricane (3 is average). So far, we've only had 5 named storms this season. El Nino and high wind shear are the biggest factors inhibiting tropical development. NOAA updated its hurricane season forecast on August 6th, also stressing a high confidence in below-normal activity this season, with 7-13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes. This could be one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons in years. In 2014, we had only 8 named storms, hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
ALLERGY REPORT
Trees: 0
Grass: 1 - Low
Weeds:
Ragweed 9 - Low
Other Weeds 3 - Low
Molds: 2,788 - Low
Pollen and mold counts are provided by Sheila M. Amar, M.D., and Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown. Pollen is measured in grains/cubic meter. Mold is measured in spores/cubic meter. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.
WINDS FOR THE NEXT WEEK
Thursday: NE to E 5-10, Friday through Tuesday: S to SE 5-10, Wednesday: S to E 5-10.
