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Crawford Oil and Propane Crawford Oil and Propane is a third generation family owned propane and refined fuels distributor located in Portage, WI since 1935.

11/06/2026

COMPLETE COLLAPSE

Happy Friday!

WTI crude fell off a cliff this week, dropping as much as $25 a barrel to close near its lowest level since 2020. Here is what drove the market this week.

Monday, oil fell more than $6 a barrel right out of the gate after Trump said he wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming attacks. I’m a bit skeptical, since we’ve seen this exact scenario play out plenty of times before. Iran did hold talks with Qatari mediators, but the details of the draft proposal remain murky, and any pause or break in negotiations could snap prices right back higher. I also think a lot of traders were simply taking profits ahead of Tuesday’s election. With crude above $100 and four straight weeks of gains, it’s an easy win to lock in before buying back after midterms. OPEC confirmed over the weekend it would keep December production steady. But Kuwait announced its October output hit 2.1 million barrels a day, the highest since before the war. Diesel remains the hot topic with some officials pointing to 35-year lows in inventories over parts of the world. The reported shortage is keeping diesel futures elevated heading into next year.

Tuesday, oil bounced back a bit from Monday’s selloff, which I still think was mostly pre-election profit-taking. Iran said it’s nowhere close to a deal with the US, and the US carried out defensive strikes on the island of Qeshm. The attack was reported as a continuation of limited strikes it’s made in recent weeks as Iran keeps attacking ships in Hormuz. In other words, nothing fundamentally changed in the region, just the level of escalation. There was more talk of a supply surplus building out of the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia again raising capacity on its East-West pipeline and the UAE saying it’s shipping at higher rates now that it’s no longer complying with OPEC quotas. Ukraine hit another Russian refinery which has become almost a weekly occurrence for months. And as long as those attacks continue, world diesel supply will remain strained.

Wednesday, oil price fell through a trap door after Democrats took control of both the House and Senate. Even with the dollar falling in value, crude dropped on hopes that Democrats can push Trump toward diplomacy with Iran. Talks with Iran continued to remain weak, and Trump again said he doesn’t plan to attack anytime soon. Although Wednesday morning, four supertankers caught fire after hitting mines in Hormuz, another reminder that Iran keeps attacking ships crossing the strait. The EIA reported another crude inventory draw, with crude, gasoline, and diesel stocks all still running below their 5-year averages, and Gulf oil flows slipped in October as attacks picked up in both straits. But the news on physical economics did nothing to move the needle higher on oil price. The UAE did announce a third pipeline in the works to route around Hormuz entirely. In my view, crude was oversold at the close on Wednesday.

Thursday, crude stabilized after Wednesday’s steepest drop since 2020. A surprise report from multiple large American banks said the first real crude surplus is forming since 2022. With Democrats now controlling Congress, there’s also some concern about a slowdown in economic development that could weigh on a possible government stalemate. We’re not out of the woods, though. Iran still reported on Thursday no progress on talks and continues daily attacks on ships in Hormuz. No one knows Trump’s next move, and with Vance and others breaking from his stance on Iran, there’s a real chance he defies and strikes before Congress can move to curb his executive power. China opened its ports for diesel exports, but only in small volumes. Therefore, we are still not finding any magic bullets to help alleviate low diesel inventories.

Friday, oil looks to close the week at its lowest level since 2020, trading flat Friday as the market recovers from this week’s surprising drop. Iran kept striking tankers in Hormuz going into Friday, and Qatari mediators again, as has happened all week, said there’s been no breakthrough on a peace deal. The oil market looks balanced on paper, but there’s still so much geopolitical risk on the table that I don’t expect another cliff-dive in prices until there’s real progress in Iran and Ukraine. Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure again, following a trend for the past couple of months. There’s still no sign that Russia is able to restart heavier diesel production. Even with gasoline and diesel prices still elevated in the US, the economy keeps running hot. Friday’s jobs report showed 165,000 jobs added versus 65,000 expected, and unemployment fell again to 4.1%. With the economy running strong alongside low diesel inventories and high prices, a lot of people are waiting for the other shoe to drop. As I’ve been saying, if these prices hold through the holidays and into early next year, the economy could stall and that’s when we’d see oil prices drop even further. But again, as always, assuming things stabilize overseas in Iran and Ukraine.

Chicago went on another absolute roller coaster this week. Late last week, reports surfaced that the Mobil Joliet refinery wasn’t running at full strength, and nothing new came out over the weekend. Basis jumped to 50 cents over NYMEX, sending local diesel prices spiking fast. But as crude dropped more than $15 a barrel, diesel prices fell right alongside it. In the middle of that collapse, Mobil reported positive news and the basis premium disappeared, landing diesel at its lowest price in months. Gasoline has been more of a peak-and-valley trade, with big swings up and down over the last couple of weeks. As harvest winds down, I expect both gasoline and diesel prices at the pump to move noticeably lower in the coming week.

Propane absolutely ripped higher this week, hitting its highest price in over a year. Fundamentals are still bearish in my view, but exports remain at record levels. Saudi Arabia announced it won’t be exporting propane this year, solidifying the US as the world’s top propane exporter. Even with propane inventories sitting at the 5-year average, that glut is slowly starting to shrink. The glut is not falling fast, but enough during the warmer stretch of the year that traders are placing longer bets on winter propane prices. Propane price did come down with crude’s massive drop, so I do expect retail prices to ease a bit next week.

As always, if you have any questions please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,
Jon Crawford

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal

10/30/2026

BREWERS ARE WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!

Happy Friday! The biggest news of the week is that the BREWERS ARE WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!! What a season and October run! Now we can finally get some sleep!

WTI crude is on pace for its sixth straight week of gains, closing firmly above $100 a barrel after a week that moved between diplomacy and military escalation. Here is what drove the market this week.

Monday, oil dropped heavily to start the week but recovered by noon. Crack spreads took a decent hike, keeping some pressure on refined products. The building tension between the US and Iran, along with the Saudi-Houthi fighting, carried over from last week into Monday. Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran to meet with top security officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, hoping to cool things down in the region, though the fighting continued right through the talks. The Houthis attacked Saudi oil pumping stations and another airport, and attacks on ships in Hormuz officially hit their highest level since the conflict with Iran began. On the technical side, crude futures were flagged as a bit overbought, helping put a ceiling on the recent price run. However, the IEA countered the futures sentiment calling for high oil prices to persist through all of 2027.

Tuesday, WTI fell back through $100 as peace talks took the spotlight over continued attacks in the region. Diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran had begun, but the Houthis kept attacking Saudi Arabia. The Houthis bombed the country’s largest refinery as well as its largest export terminal. Oil flow out of the Gulf remains below normal. In addition OPEC meets this weekend and is expected to hold quotas steady. The US also chose not to pressure India over its Russian oil purchases, an attempt to help cap high world oil prices. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a humanitarian ceasefire in one region while continuing to exchange fire elsewhere. Therefore that diplomacy doesn’t look likely to spread beyond that one small section.

Wednesday, oil traded higher after Trump reiterated to Gulf countries that small, precision strikes on Iran will begin after the election. Netanyahu’s reelection in Israel added more bullish sentiment, since it raises the odds that Israel will bomb Iran if needed. The EIA reported another crude inventory draw. We will be watching whether that trend reverses once harvest wraps up. Diesel stocks dropped again, adding pressure to the spot market during peak harvest demand. Gasoline stocks fell as summer demand keeps fading. World crude demand is just starting to show early signs of slowing, though not enough yet to move the needle. China is adding more fuel back to the market, but they’re paying a premium for the crude oil stock, so it shouldn’t be enough to move prices much.

Thursday, oil prices fell after JD Vance announced he’d sent a letter to a top Iranian official offering to open negotiations. Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new offer, and Iran seemed uninterested. Although as usual Iran said it would prefer diplomacy. Saudi Arabia will keep discounting its' crude to keep volume flowing at full speed even as shipping costs continue to skyrocket. Oil companies reported earnings this week, and refiners so far have posted margins more than triple last year’s, cashing in on high crude prices and wide crack spreads tied to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. US third-quarter GDP growth came in a bit stronger than expected, showing the economy is still holding up under these high energy prices. The real test will be the holiday season. The Fed held rates steady at Wednesday’s meeting but hinted at one more hike in December heading into 2027. Unless crude falls hard before year-end, I think a December hike is close to a sure thing.

Friday, oil traded higher and looks to close out the week higher as well, now firmly above $100 a barrel. After Ukraine quietly paused its attacks on Russian refineries, Russia responded by striking Ukrainian infrastructure. In response, within 24 hours Ukraine abandoned the pause and hit two Russian refineries. A major oil tanker was struck in Hormuz, as Iran and the US edge toward a potential showdown next week after the election. Trump denied any peace talks were underway last night, even as Iran posted on X that negotiations were still ongoing. The US has continued helping ships through Hormuz, but any strikes on Iran would put American assets at risk and likely close the Strait entirely. The reality of the Venezuela deal also came into focus this week. As I’ve been writing, Venezuela’s ability to actually deliver on Trump’s deal is slim. Most production experts believe only about 10 billion of the agreed 64 billion barrels can realistically be developed given the country’s legal and infrastructure constraints.

Chicago basis went on another wild ride this week. Word came out that the Mobil Joliet refinery had reopened, and prices dropped on the news. But the report turned out to be inaccurate, and basis shot right back up. Diesel looks to close about 20 cents below the peak hit during the refinery outage. With every open barrel in the market getting bought up at steep premiums and harvest running at full speed, I don’t expect Chicago basis to come down until Mobil is fully back producing diesel. We’re currently at about 50% harvest completion in our region, so demand isn’t letting up locally. Gasoline price did collapse and is holding at lower levels as demand keeps falling. So I expect gasoline prices at the pump to move lower. Diesel will probably hold where it’s at, if not climb even higher.

Propane prices keep moving higher even though the fundamentals remain bearish in my opinion. Propane price continues to track crude oil price right now rather than its own physical fundamentals. I’m not sure whether propane price decouples from crude again after harvest the way it did most of the year before September. For now, I do expect higher retail propane prices next week.

As always, if you have any questions please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,
Jon Crawford

10/23/2026

CHICAGO SHORT TERM BLOWOUT AND LANDING

Happy Friday!

WTI crude spent the week climbing off jitters near $100 a barrel, pushing through $102 midweek, and closing back above $100 on Friday as Middle East tensions escalated sharply. And Chicago did another record basis dance.

Monday, oil slipped early but recovered as WTI held near $100. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz picked up significantly, and while exports have dropped, ships are still managing to move through. Supply is holding up overall, which is helping keep a lid on prices for now. Election season is adding to the jitters, with Iran and the Houthis continuing to signal they’ll do whatever it takes to try to swing the outcome. Freight costs keep climbing, and a lack of diesel production remains a major concern heading into 2027. Trump’s proposed easing of sanctions on Russia in exchange for diesel is also setting up a possible summit with Xi and Putin. Trump's lean toward Putin is putting real pressure on Republican midterm races. The 10-year Treasury pulled back from recent highs, though plenty of volatility still remains.

Tuesday, oil pushed above $100 to start the day, then eased sharply on news that Iran and the US may have struck a nuclear inspection deal through Qatari negotiations. However, we’ve been down this road before, so the news didn’t keep prices down for long. The Houthis claimed attacks on a Saudi oil facility, an oil field, Riyadh’s main airport, and the airport in Abha. In addition, Saudi Arabia announced it would no longer hold its investor conference in person. The IEA said it’s prepared to release more barrels if global supply tightness carries into winter, and Trump announced an $8 billion fuel relief plan for farmers. But details were not discussed. Russia and Ukraine kept trading fire on each other’s energy infrastructure which continues to be the norm.

Wednesday, oil rose again along with gasoline and diesel. Crack spreads have dropped sharply, but the possible price relief still hasn’t made it to the pump as local spot markets remain high. Iran took a hard line saying the US needs to lift the blockade before negotiations can start, and attacks in Hormuz kept ticking higher. Even with crude exports out of Saudi Arabia reported as strong, a risk premium is back in the crude trade. The EIA reported more draws in oil and gasoline, but a surprise build in distillate. Refiners are still running at a solid pace, but strong harvest-season diesel demand at home, combined with the worldwide shortage, is keeping prices elevated. Russia claimed its first diesel shipment to the US would leave Thursday, though the volume is so small that it won’t meaningfully affect the broader shortage. Putin hosted the US to discuss Ukraine. And the US separately discussed with India buying more Venezuelan crude to help supply more diesel to the region.

Thursday, oil kept climbing along with gasoline and diesel. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued into the morning, forcing an evacuation of employees from the state oil company’s headquarters. Saudi Arabia doesn’t appear to have the situation under control, and there’s growing concern the conflict with keep escalating with real supply loss on the line. The US is building up more ships and troops in the region near Iran, and Trump again said he’s prepared to “finish the job” if Iran doesn’t start negotiating. Iran has also run out of oil supplies in Asia. Their entire floating fleet that was in the market before the blockade is gone and can’t be resupplied. Food and energy costs keep pushing on inflation at home, though the economy seems to be holding up after a better-than-expected jobs report. Trump announced a release of heating oil reserves to help with winter heating bills, but again, the volume isn’t enough to really move market economics.

Friday, oil pushed higher again and looks to close above $100 for the week as Middle East tensions keep building. The Houthis continue attacking Saudi Arabia, and the US has now started evacuating citizens from the country. Iran continued attacking ships in Hormuz, sinking two late Thursday, and laid out an attack plan targeting American bases, assets, oil infrastructure, and citizens across the entire Middle East. Intelligence suggests Iran has rebuilt a large portion of its missile stockpile and is capable of serious damage. The US keeps building up military presence in the Gulf, and without a breakthrough in negotiations, further attacks look all but guaranteed. At home, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to fast-track projects aimed at boosting fuel supply during wartime. Although so far, only one Texas refiner has announced plans to expand capacity, so the move does little to change the US production trajectory for now. On a brighter note, crack spreads finished the week more than 40% lower from recent highs and are approaching normal levels relative to crude price. Refining utilization dropped to 93% as refineries head into maintenance after running flat-out all year. That said, I don’t expect refiners to ramp production back up once maintenance wraps up. With crack spreads lower and demand decline in the winter, they’re better off keeping supply a bit tight to put a floor under prices.

Chicago sport market went absolutely bonkers this week. Chicago basis blew out almost a dollar a gallon on both gasoline and diesel. Midwest harvest is running full speed, creating logistical headaches getting fuel to the right terminals. And on top of that, the Mobil Joliet refinery shut down unexpectedly. I’ve been saying for weeks that a refinery outage during harvest could send a shockwave through the market. Well, it did. Prices moved as much as 50 cents a gallon in a single day. Depending on when Mobil gives a reopening timeline, there’s a chance gasoline eases off current levels, but diesel at the pump is headed well over $6 a gallon in the near term. But be mid-day Friday, basis seems to be sharply selling off, so maybe the extreme high pricing will ease by the weekend and not hit the pump price too hard. There is just so much volatility until harvest is completed. We’re still hoping for some correction after the election, but if Chicago keeps seeing supply disruptions, any relief from the broader world market could get wiped out by local basis dynamics. In other words, I think we’re looking at higher prices for longer heading into the holidays. And unfortunately, that’s before even factoring in the Iran war flaring back up.

Propane prices climbed again this week, and we ended up raising our retail price again. We’re now at the highest retail propane price in a year, and we’re not even into winter yet. Corn drying is likely driving some of this, but supply remains in good shape. Right now propane looks to be hitching its wagon to crude oil pricing again. Propane had decoupled from crude prices for most of the year, but now looks to be trading in tandem.

As always, if you have any questions please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,
Jon Crawford

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal

10/16/2026

NOW WORKING WITH A TRIO OF WARS

Happy Friday!

This week was the realization that the world is dealing with three major wars all affecting world supply of oil and refined products. Instead of conflicts easing, we are moving into the end of year with escalating conflicts rather than resolutions.

Monday, the biggest story was an attack on Riyadh International Airport in Saudi Arabia. Houthi militants struck Terminals 1 and 2, killing 12 people and injuring over 300, forcing an immediate shutdown. And then they hit the airport again the following day, canceling more than 1,000 flights combined. Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz also continued, overshadowing Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it’s expanding its East-West pipeline to 10 million barrels a day. On the supply side, Trump claimed he’d struck a diesel supply deal with Russia, along with a truce between Russia and Ukraine on attacking each other’s energy infrastructure. The deal is an odd one, since Trump signed a new sanctions law against Russian imports just three weeks ago, and it’s still unclear how the diesel barrels would actually enter the market. As for the ceasefire, neither Russia nor Ukraine confirmed any such deal by end of day Monday.

Tuesday, oil held flat as traders weighed the Russian diesel deal against the attacks in Saudi Arabia. Lawmakers questioned whether the Russia deal violates US sanctions law, and regardless, it won’t do anything to bring prices down before the election. The bigger story on Tuesday was that Iran appears to be gearing up for war, with some predicting it could escalate further alongside the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Iran also stepped up its own attacks on ships in the Strait. The market took a breather after WTI hit its highest price in a month around $95.

Wednesday, oil started climbing again as more signs pointed to Iran building toward a bigger strike on Saudi Arabia and the Strait. A ship crossing the Strait hit a mine Wednesday morning, and another was hit by a projectile. Iran stated publicly that it plans to close the Strait entirely before the US election to influence the outcome. The IEA finished analyzing Trump’s diesel deal with Putin, and based on current Russian output, the proposed barrel release would only cover about two weeks of US diesel demand. And the additional releases Trump mentioned aren’t even possible given the damage to Russian refineries. Russia also struck 30 energy sites in Ukraine, undercutting any ceasefire Trump claimed earlier in the week. At home, inflation rose 0.6% in September, well above expectations. Half the increase came from higher food and energy costs. The Fed is still planning one more rate hike this year, and at this pace, recession odds keep climbing in prediction markets.

Thursday, oil again rose further. Attacks on ships in the Strait kept climbing, and Ukraine announced more strikes on Russian refineries. Even as the Trump administration discussed easing sanctions on “shadow fleet” tankers moving Russian and Iranian crude, traders believe continued strikes on energy infrastructure in both the Gulf and Russia will keep weighing on the market. The Houthis struck Saudi Arabia again, this time hitting Saudi Aramco’s headquarters. Iran has now struck energy infrastructure more than 135 times since the war began, and countries are growing concerned about the level of intelligence Iran has to strike with that kind of precision. The EIA reported a large draw in crude and diesel inventories, adding further pressure to prices. Even with inflation running hot, gasoline and distillate demand remains average. Traders are now starting to believe crude prices could stay elevated well into 2028. And while Europe and others are releasing product stockpiles, until demand actually cools we’re looking at higher for longer. That said, if the 10-year Treasury yield stays elevated alongside high inflation, a US recession is a real possibility.

Friday, oil looked to close roughly flat on the day but up over $5 a barrel for the week. The good news is crack spreads fell sharply from record highs, offering some relief on gasoline and diesel prices. Even with crude still elevated, the drop in crack spread will help keep a lid on things. The White House pressured Ukraine Thursday evening by limiting its satellite communications access, aiming to diminish further strikes on Russian refineries. Friday morning brought a reminder of how broadly high energy costs are spreading. Freight costs are now up over 19%, the most in four years, and that’s working its way into the price of nearly everything. Investors are nearly certain another rate hike from the Fed lands by year-end. Without cooling inflation and a real pullback in demand, I don’t see a path to cheaper gasoline and diesel by year-end. Realistically, it will take all three current wars ending and a drop in world demand for a true recovery in the oil market, especially diesel.

Chicago had quite a ride this week. The spot market pushed diesel costs up over 50 cents in three days, only to come back down just as fast. Gasoline took a similar but smaller swing. I expect gasoline prices at the pump to hold and diesel to ease a bit. Although we’re still deep in high diesel demand for harvest, so anything can happen. Any supply disruption would send diesel prices right back up. For now, harvest is moving along well and supply is keeping pace. Let’s hope that holds for another four weeks.

Propane prices kept climbing again this week. There was a large draw in inventories reported Thursday, but we’re in the middle of corn drying season. And the country is still sitting on healthy inventory levels with shipments from Canada moving along just fine. Even with exports running at full capacity, we should have more than enough supply to handle a cold winter. Production should stay strong as long as crude prices and crack spreads remain elevated. Propane seems to now be trading in tandem with crude oil prices. So until crude oil prices come down, we will probably experience higher propane prices.

As always, if you have any questions please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,
Jon Crawford

10/09/2026

NOT SO FAST...

Happy Friday!

WTI crude started the week near $90 a barrel and spent the week pulled back and forth by Middle East escalation, a Gulf hurricane threat, and international reserve releases before settling back just above $90/barrel on Friday.

Monday, crude opened around $90 and closed even lower. The G7 met and committed to releasing another 100 million barrels of diesel and crude stocks, and agreed not to limit their own exports. Trump followed suit, saying the US wouldn't limit diesel exports either. Middle East Gulf supply remains healthy, and even with the Strait technically still closed, flows are strong enough to keep prices from blowing out. The real issue keeping prices elevated is low global inventory. The world has lost about 3 billion gallons of crude since the war began and only 1 billion made replaced using reserve releases. This means it could take up to two years to refill global reserves even at an extra 2 million barrels a day of production. Just as producers started discussing that process, the Middle East Gulf instability returned with renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is now fighting back, and the risk of a strike on refineries or ports being attacked is on the table.

Tuesday, the big news was Trump announcing a vague executive order allowing dyed diesel which doesn't pay federal road taxes to be used on highways. The order stated that penalties would be waived and taxes deferred until January 1, 2027. There are a lot of problems with this order. It's a tax deferral, not a cancellation, and only Congress has the authority to cancel taxes. It's unclear Trump even has the power to defer them. Treasury and the IRS haven't issued any guidance yet, and state road taxes and sales tax still apply regardless of what the federal order says. In my opinion, the order has caused nothing but confusion and probably won't amount to much. Right now, using dyed diesel on-road still exposes you to state fines, and if dyed fuel is still in your tank after January 1, your vehicle won't be road-legal. The red dye lingers in filters and tanks for a long period of time. While crude flows are back near pre-war levels, diesel and jet fuel supply are still running at only 60%. I don't expect diesel prices to come down quickly. There was some good news on Tuesday regarding the fighting in Yemen. The Saudis helped the Yemenis retake the entire coast where the Red Sea export facility sits. The announcement calmed the market a bit and kept WTI below $90.

Wednesday, oil rose again on Middle East attacks and a hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane currently is on track to possibly knock out 15% of US crude production. With refiners already running at near-breaking capacity, any damage to refining units could cause another diesel spike. Iran and the Houthis ramped up attacks including hitting ships and a Saudi airport. The US said no deal would happen without major changes to Iran's nuclear program. The US naval blockade has indeed kept all Iranian crude stuck in the Gulf. With supply tightness becoming a real concern heading into winter, the IEA is working out how to release its promised 100 million barrels. Although the news held prices steady due to lack of clarity. Ukraine struck another Russian oil depot and refinery, and Russia retaliated with major strikes. The Iran and Ukraine conflicts are once again driving most of crude price action. At home, the EIA reported crude inventory draws, adding further support under the price floor.

Thursday, oil jumped nearly 4% on reports that Washington was drawing up plans for a major strike on Iran before the midterms. Attacks on ships in the Strait are picking up, and only seven ships crossed on Wednesday. That was the lowest since late July. Oil from Oman and the Red Sea is flowing at higher rates helping to keep somewhat of a lid on prices. At home, a day after the hurricane warning, US producers shut down 25% of Gulf oil production. And the Saudi-Houthi fighting escalated further while Syria said it might send troops to help Saudi Arabia.

Friday, crude held steady after Trump announced Thursday night he would not attack Iran before the midterms. Iran has received a proposal from the US and plans to review it within seven days. The Gulf hurricane threat kept accelerating shutdowns. In a single day, production cuts jumped from 25% to 46%. Refineries and chemical plants aren't included in the shutdowns yet, but up to 500,000 barrels a day of diesel refining capacity is at risk. If we lose 500,000 barrels per day of diesel production, this would add real stress to an already tight diesel market. Crack spreads for US refiners fell Friday after China said it would resume fuel exports in October. The news was very positive for a world market that's extremely tight on refined products. The Saudi-Houthi conflict and the Russia-Ukraine strikes both continued strong into Friday and neither shows signs of slowing down.

In the Chicago spot market, we're still seeing gasoline outages at terminals as out-of-state buyers cross into Wisconsin for cheaper gasoline than what's available in Iowa and Minnesota. Those outages are putting pressure on trucking, with wild price swings. Diesel spot prices have unfortunately rocketed higher alongside crude and heavy harvest demand. I expect gasoline prices at the pump to hold while diesel price will climb over the weekend and into next week. Until harvest wraps up, I think diesel prices will stay a bit inflated.

Propane prices surprisingly keep climbing. Crop-drying demand has been strong, and propane continues to track crude oil higher. Retail prices are on pace to surpass winter contract pricing possibly by the end of October. Contract price surpassing usually doesn't hit until January or February, so this early move is a bit concerning heading into peak winter demand. Anyone who locked in a contract is protected from this current unusually volatile propane market.

As always, if you have any questions please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

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416 E Wisconsin Street
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