05/03/2020
The Drake Equation - A Covid 19 Reflection: Founded by Cornell astronomer Frank Drake still prevails as the best mathematical model to calculate the probability of technological civilizations in the galaxy represented by "N". In a nutshell, N is constrained by the terms of the equation including rate of star formation, number of planets,habitability, complex life, intelligence and the rise of technology.
However, what is of particular importance is the value for "L", the last term of the equation representing the survival probability of a technological civilization. For example, in the case of Earth mass extinction events were
driven by external forces e.g. bolloid impacts e.g. the K-Pg event that destroyed > 70% of terrestrial life including the dinosaurs 66 million year ago, and imminent events on larger time scales e.g. the longevity of its host star on the order of billions of years. Conversely, extinction events are also caused by internal variables e.g. the climatically driven Permian extinction resulting in a 90% extinction 250 million years ago However, is a technological civilization, as the outcome of billions of years of evolution, left to the arbitrary whims of natural forces?
This begs the question: How much control does a technological civilization have over its own fate? Consider the Kardashev scale that rates civilizations based upon energy consumption. The earth is 0.7 below 1 that defines a full planetary civilization;,2 is interstellar ( e.g. a popular movie withthe same title),and 3 galactic ( not far removed from Star Wars!) Speculation by futurists e.g. physicist Michio Kaku optimistically predict that we are destined to achieve level 1 and beyond as we become more globally interconnected and gain more control over the terrestrial environment e.g weather and radiate into parts of the solar system ( This radiation is also predicted by my Janus hypothesis available on-line under "exobiospheres").
This begets the next question: What are the obstacles? Will we, as new
technological species survive ( in the words of astronomer Carl Sagan)
"technological adolescents?" Indeed, we nearly undermined the value of "L" during the Cold War and the nuclear arms races culminating with the Cuban Missile Crisis when for a moment our civilization teetered on self-destruction. Global pandemics e.g. the "Spanish Flu of 1918" that infected 500 million (nearly 1/3 of the global population at the time including a staggering fatality rate of 5%! And of course, the Covid-19 pandemic infecting nearly 2 million globally. An achievement of a 1 on the Kardachev scale ( and beyond) will be driven by advances in science and technology. However, our present state of paranoia amplified by conspiracy theories including hoaxes interlaced with divisive politics not only pushes our civilization backwards. but threatens our very survival. This dysfunctional culture is a breeding ground for destructive forces including pandemics, climate catastrophes, terrorism and wars.This brings forth yet another question: What have we learned from our mistakes? Indeed we do possess the potential to extend the value of "L" in the Drake equation. In fact, Carl Sagan pondered the vale of L for a civilization at one million years! Our value is but 10,000 years marked by the rise of agriculture . Competitively speaking we have barely taken the first baby step technologically. Final question: Will we take the next baby step? Natural forces aside, the value of L i.e. our fate rests in our own hands.
