11/12/2024
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Die moontlikheid dat beurtkrag so vroeg as volgende maand kan terugkeer, is op die tafel. Dit sal tot einde 2028 op lae vlakke bly, wanneer Suid-Afrikaners van Januarie tot September onder die gevolge van ’n elektrisiteitsvoorsieningstekort kan ly.
Dit is ondanks die versekering deur die Eskom-stelseloperateur in sy mediumtermyn-stelseltoereikendheidvooruitsigte vir 2025-’29 dat die ligte oor die tydperk aan sal bly.
Hierdie versekering is gebaseer op die aanname dat die beskikbaarheid van Eskom se opwekkingsaanleg op 'n jaarlikse gemiddeld van 63% sal wees.
In die week wat op 1 Desember geëindig het, het die energiebeskikbaarheidsfaktor onder 60% gedaal ná sewe opeenvolgende weke bo daardie vlak.
Die gemiddelde vir die jaar tot op daardie datum was 60,12%, 'n verbetering van byna ses persentasiepunte vanaf die vorige jaar se gemiddelde.
Die verbeterde aanlegprestasie het gelei tot meer as 250 opeenvolgende dae sonder beurtkrag, wat die nutsmaatskappy byna R17 miljard aan dieselkoste bespaar het.
Vooruitskattings wys fase 1-beurtkrag in Januarie en Februarie volgende jaar, Februarie 2026, en Februarie, Mei en Julie 2027. Die ander maande sal na verwagting vry van beurtkrag wees.
Die situasie sal na verwagting aansienlik versleg in 2028, met beurtkrag wat tussen fase 1 en 2 in elke maand van Januarie tot September wissel. Dieselfde word in 2029 verwag, met beurtkrag wat verskerp sal word tot fase 3 in Februarie en bykomende fase 1-beurtkrag in November.
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The possibility that Load-shedding may return as early as next month are on the table. It will remain at low levels until the end of 2028, when South Africans may suffer the consequences of an electricity supply deficit from January to September.
This is despite assurances by the Eskom system operator in its medium-term system adequacy outlook for 2025-29 that the lights will remain on over the period.
This assurance was based on the assumption that the availability of Eskom’s generation plant will be at an annual average of 63%.
In the week ending the 1st of December the energy availability factor dipped under 60% after seven consecutive weeks above that level.
The average to date was 60.12%, an improvement of almost six percentage points from the previous year’s average.
The improved plant performance had resulted in more than 250 consecutive days without load-shedding, saving the utility almost R17bn in diesel costs.
Forcasts show stage 1 load-shedding in January and February next year, February 2026, and February, May and July 2027. The other months are expected to be free of load-shedding.
The situation can deteriorate considerably in 2028, with load-shedding varying between stage 1 and 2 in every month from January to September. The same is expected in 2029, with load-shedding intensifying to stage 3 in February and additional stage 1 load-shedding in November.
