16/03/2026
Why the Iran War and the Closing of the Strait of Hormuz Could Affect Eskom and Increase Load Shedding
Many people are asking what a war in the Middle East has to do with electricity in South Africa. The connection may not be obvious, but the global energy system is deeply interconnected — and events thousands of kilometres away can still impact our power supply.
1. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman. It is one of the most critical shipping routes on Earth.
About 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this single waterway every day.
If conflict in the region disrupts or closes this route, millions of barrels of oil cannot reach global markets. That immediately pushes global oil prices higher.
Recent reports already show oil prices rising above $100 per barrel as tensions escalate.
2. Higher oil prices affect South Africa — even if we don’t buy oil from Iran
South Africa imports most of its fuel and refined petroleum products. This means we buy energy at global market prices, not local prices.
When global oil prices rise:
Petrol and diesel become more expensive
Transport and logistics costs increase
Industrial production becomes more expensive
Inflation rises across the economy
Even if South Africa imports oil from countries like Angola or Saudi Arabia, the global price still rises for everyone when supply is threatened.
3. Why this matters for Eskom
Many people think Eskom only uses coal. While coal is the primary source of electricity, diesel plays a crucial role in stabilizing the grid.
Eskom relies on diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to prevent or reduce load shedding during peak demand or when coal plants fail.
When oil prices rise:
Diesel becomes much more expensive
Running these emergency power plants becomes costly
Eskom may run them less often to save money
The result can be higher electricity tariffs or more load shedding.
4. Fuel shortages could worsen the problem
There are also concerns about fuel supply disruptions globally, which could create shortages and further drive up prices.
Higher fuel costs also affect:
Coal transport
Maintenance logistics
Power station operations
All of this increases pressure on Eskom’s already fragile system.
5. The global ripple effect
Energy markets are global. When a major chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the impact spreads quickly across the world economy.
Possible consequences include:
Rising fuel prices
Higher electricity costs
Increased inflation
Greater pressure on power utilities
For countries already struggling with electricity supply — like South Africa — the effects can be even more severe.
⚡ In short:
A war far away can still affect your electricity bill at home. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, rising oil prices could increase Eskom’s costs, raise electricity prices, and increase the likelihood of load shedding.
