13/04/2026
Meteorologists and climate scientists are warning of the "real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years" developing in 2026. This "Super El Niño" could rival or surpass historic events like those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
This projected "Super" El Niño is expected to significantly affect South Africa, primarily by ending the current wet cycle and ushering in a period of severe drought and record-high temperatures.
📍Projected Timeline of Impacts
While South Africa has benefited from a weak La Niña through early 2026, climate models show a rapid reversal:
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
📍Autumn 2026 (Now – May): Conditions are currently transitioning from a weak La Niña to neutral. Most areas will continue to see normal to above-normal rainfall, which is supporting a healthy 2025-26 maize harvest.
📍Winter 2026 (June – August):
El Niño is likely to emerge officially by August. Early winter forecasts from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) already suggest below-normal rainfall for the southwestern and southern coastal areas.
📍Summer 2026/27 (October onwards): This is when the "Super" El Niño's full force is expected, likely bringing prolonged dry spells and extreme heat to the summer rainfall regions.
‼️*Key Areas of Concern‼️*
📍Water Security: Authorities are already warning of possible water supply disruptions. Prolonged drought could lower reservoir levels and increase the risk of "Day Zero" scenarios in water-stressed regions like the Western and Eastern Cape.
📍Agriculture & Food Prices:
While the current crop looks good, the 2026-27 season starting in October could be "tough". Previous strong El Niños have caused nearly 30% contractions in the agricultural sector, leading to sharp food price inflation.
📍Extreme Heat: 2026 and 2027 are predicted to be exceptionally hot. This increases the risk of wildfires, particularly in the Cape, and heightens the threat of heat-related illnesses.
Experts from uMngeni-uThukela Water and the CSIR advise proactive measures now, such as fixing water leaks and preparing for a potentially multi-year dry cycle that could last until 2030.
