Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Group - MTB - BCAM

05/11/2026

‼️⚠️‼️

AI “likely culprit” in applications surge, while research leaders want scrutiny of “absurd” expected rate

30/10/2026

🌍 Our PI, Prof. Maira Aguiar, participated in the 24th European Society for Vector Ecology (ESOVE) Conference, held in Valencia, Spain, from October 27–30, 2026.

She presented her work entitled “Modelling VBD Emergence in Europe: Dengue as a Case Study”, highlighting the importance of mathematical modelling in understanding and anticipating the emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases in Europe.👏🦟

20/09/2026

18th DSABNS ❤️

07/09/2026

📢 New publication! 🦟🌡️

We are pleased to share our new paper: “Climate and dengue synchronization in southern Brazil: a municipal analysis with cross-state validation” published in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2026.0438

In this study, we investigate how climate influences the synchronization of dengue outbreaks across municipalities in southern Brazil.

Using epidemiological and climate data from 74 municipalities in Paraná between 2010 and 2024, we find a transition from a low- to a high-transmission regime accompanied by a marked increase in synchronization across cities.

🌦️ We show that climate anomalies increase the number of permissive days for dengue transmission, and that these days are significantly associated with outbreak synchronization.

Our results reveal a two-stage climate mechanism: conducive climatic conditions first reduce asynchronous dynamics and coincide with the emergence of synchronized outbreaks, and subsequently help sustain higher levels of synchronization.

Importantly, comparative analyses in Ceará and Minas Gerais show that climate consistently amplifies synchronization, although its role in triggering synchronization depends on regional climatic conditions.

These findings highlight climate-driven synchronization as an emerging feature of dengue dynamics, with important implications for understanding how climate change may shape the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics.

Congratulations to the whole team! 🎉

07/09/2026

📢 DSABNS 2027 — Registration & Calls are OPEN!

We are pleased to announce that registration and abstract submission for DSABNS 2027 — Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences are now open! 🎉

📍 Budapest, Hungary
📅 1–5 February 2027
🏛️ European Youth Centre Budapest

We welcome contributions in the form of:

🔹 Minisymposia (MS) — propose a session around a specific topic
🔹 Contributed Talks (CT) — submit your research for an oral presentation
🔹 Posters (P) — share your latest results through a poster presentation

👉 Registration & Abstract Submission:
https://dsabns.eu/2027/submission.html

👉 Call for Minisymposia:
https://dsabns.eu/2027/minisymposia.html

Please note that a Google account is required to complete the registration form. If you do not have one, contact us at [email protected].

We look forward to receiving your contributions and welcoming you to Budapest in February 2027! 🇭🇺

06/08/2026

📢 🎉 New publication in Science

We are pleased to share that our Mathematical and Theoretical Biology (MTB) Group has published a Letter in Science entitled "Dengue vaccines need long-term surveillance."

https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/science.aej9456

🦟💉 The letter discusses the recent temporary suspension of the Butantan-DV dengue vaccine rollout in Brazil and emphasizes that such events highlight - not undermine - the need for long-term surveillance following vaccine deployment. Active pharmacovigilance, serotype-specific monitoring, and real-world epidemiological surveillance are essential to ensure vaccine safety and effectiveness and to support evidence-based public health decisions.

🌏 As dengue continues to expand into new regions of the world, understanding vaccine performance beyond clinical trials is becoming increasingly important. Long-term surveillance is not an optional component of vaccination programmes - it is fundamental to their success.

This publication reflects the MTB Group's continued commitment to advancing the mathematical and epidemiological understanding of vector-borne diseases and contributing to evidence-based public health policy through high-impact scientific research.

On 8 June, Brazil temporarily suspended its Butantan-DV dengue vaccination rollout after reports of rare and unexpected adverse events during early implementation (1–3). This decision—an appropriate response to a safety signal—should not be interpreted as evidence that dengue vaccination has f...

31/07/2026

📢 🎉 New publication from the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology (MTB) Group! 🎉🥰

We are pleased to share our latest publication in EClinicalMedicine.

This work reflects our commitment to advancing quantitative approaches in epidemiology and public health through interdisciplinary research and collaboration. We hope our findings contribute to a better understanding of the challenges addressed in the study and support evidence-based decision-making.

Read the full article here:

27/07/2026

🎉 Dynamics Days Europe 2026 – A Great Success!

Last week, the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology (MTB) Group at BCAM, together with NOVA University Lisbon, had the pleasure of organizing Dynamics Days Europe 2026 in Lisbon.

Over the course of an inspiring week, we welcomed 464 participants from 45 countries, bringing together researchers from a wide range of disciplines to exchange ideas on nonlinear dynamics, complex systems, mathematical modelling, and their many applications.

The conference featured an outstanding scientific programme, including plenary lectures, mini-symposia, contributed talks, and poster sessions, creating countless opportunities for discussion, collaboration, and new scientific connections.

A heartfelt thank you goes to all participants, plenary speakers, mini-symposium organizers, authors, sponsors, and our incredible volunteers. Your enthusiasm, dedication, and active participation made DDE 2026 a truly memorable event.

We are especially proud of our MTB (BCAM) and NOVA FCT teams, as well as all the colleagues and volunteers who worked tirelessly behind the scenes over many months to make this conference possible. Their dedication, teamwork, professionalism, and enthusiasm were the driving force behind the success of DDE 2026. We are deeply grateful to every one of them for making this event such a memorable experience.

Thank you, Lisbon, for being such a wonderful host city, and thank you to everyone who joined us on this exciting scientific journey.

We now look forward to our next event: DSABNS 2027, which will take place in Budapest, Hungary, from 1-5 February 2027. We hope to see many of you there for another week of inspiring science and collaboration!

25/07/2026

🎉 We are pleased to share a new publication by Maíra Aguiar, leader of the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology (MTB) Research Group at BCAM:

💉🦟 “Dengue vaccines in the real world: why long-term surveillance matters”🦟💉, published in The Lancet Microbe.

The article highlights the importance of continued real-world surveillance after dengue vaccine approval, including long-term monitoring of safety and effectiveness across age groups, baseline serostatus, and circulating dengue serotypes.

You can read it here 👇

🔗 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanmic.2026.101504

22/06/2026

⏳ Last days to register for Dynamics Days Europe 2026!

Registration for the XLVI Dynamics Days Europe (DDE 2026) is open until 30 June 2026.

Join us 19–24 July 2026 in Lisbon, Portugal, together with more than 500 participants from around the world. DDE 2026 will bring together researchers in nonlinear dynamics, complex systems, applied mathematics, physics, biology, engineering, and many other fields for a week of outstanding science, collaboration, and networking.

Don’t miss the opportunity to join the XLVI Dynamics Days Europe (DDE 2026)!

📅 Registration deadline: 30 June 2026

✅ Register now: https://dde-2026.sci-meet.net/

We look forward to welcoming you to Lisbon!

Dynamics Days Europe 2026 - DDE 2026