10/06/2026
Oil prices may have risen because of the Iran conflict, but they will not save Russia's economy. Windfall gains were significantly offset by a stronger currency and subsidy payments to oil companies and refiners.
In the first four months of 2026, Russia's budget deficit reached 5.9 trillion roubles, already far above the 3.8 trillion planned for the whole year. More than 200,000 businesses have closed since January. Interest rates remain high. Corporate debt has nearly doubled since the full-scale invasion. Labour shortages are persistent, taxes are rising, and domestic demand is falling.
EU sanctions, now 20 packages in force, continue to restrict Russia's access to technology, finance, logistics and energy markets, imposing long-term structural costs. Higher oil prices give Russia short-term breathing space. They do not fix the structural damage. The pressure continues.
